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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: June 16th, 2014 | 0 Comments

  1. THREE PERCENT FALL – Following the 97 different 1-day losses of at least 3% that have occurred since 1950, the S&P 500 stock index has been up 79% of the time over the subsequent 1-year (i.e., 77 of 97 times) and the average gain for the index over the ensuing 12-months has been +15.2% (i.e., average change of the raw index for all 97 1-year periods not including reinvested dividends).  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  2. RECENT HISTORY – The last 3% or greater loss for the S&P 500 took place on 11/09/11 when the stock index fell 3.7% but then followed up that tumble with a +12.3% gain over the subsequent 12 months.  The worst loss since 11/09/11 for the S&P 500 occurred on 6/20/13 when the index lost 2.5% for the day.  In the 51 weeks since 6/20/13, the S&P 500 has gained +21.9% (source: BTN Research).
  3. DON’T STOP NOW – The bull market for the S&P 500 began its 64th month as of 6/09/14.  The current bull is the 11th bull market for stocks since 1950.  3 of the previous 10 bulls lasted at least 6 years, i.e., 72 months (source: BTN Research).
  4. HOW LONG? – The longest bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950 lasted 9 ½ years, running from a bear market low on 10/11/90 until it peaked on 3/24/00 (source: BTN Research).
  5. ONE AFTER ANOTHER – After closing at 1565 on 10/09/07, the S&P 500 did not close above that level until 3/28/13, a span of almost 5 ½ years.  From the 3/28/13 record close through and including the most recent record close (set on Monday 6/09/14), the S&P 500 has set 64 record closes in the last 14 ½ months.  The S&P 500 began in 1957 (source: BTN Research).
  6. OPINIONS – At Friday’s (6/13/14) close of 1936, the S&P 500 is still at a lower value than what 6 of 10 Wall Street equity strategists forecasted for the stock index for 12/31/14.  The year-end 2014 predictions were made on 12/16/13 (source: Barron’s).
  7. FUNDING A RETIREMENT – The S&P 500 has averaged +10.3% per year (total return) over the 25 years ending 12/31/13.  A lump-sum of $836,220 (in a pre-tax account) will sustain a 20-year payout of $100,000 per year (gross before taxes and paid at the end of the year) assuming the funds continue to earn +10.3% annually.  This mathematical calculation ignores the ultimate impact of taxes on the account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment or performance.  Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: BTN Research).
  8. STATUS QUO – If the Fed does not raise interest rates following this week’s 2-day meeting (June 17-18), it will be the 44th consecutive meeting that the Fed has left short-term rates unchanged (source: Federal Reserve).
  9. DOWN FROM A PEAK – The nation’s unemployment rate doubled from 5.0% to 10.0% over the 4 years ending 10/31/09, but has since fallen to 6.3% as of 5/31/14 (source: Department of Labor).
  10. LUNCH FOR FOUR? – The winning bid to have lunch this year with billionaire Warren Buffett, the world’s 4th wealthiest person, was $2.17 million, down from 2012’s record of $3.46 million (source: BTN Research).
  11. WHAT IS YOUR PERCENTAGE? – As of 3/31/14 the average American has total debt equal to 106% of his/her annual after-tax income, down from 131% as of 12/31/07 (source: Federal Reserve).
  12. PARTY LIKE IT IS 1999 – The number of births in the USA in 2013 is unchanged from the number of births in 1999.  There were 3,957,577 births in 2013.  There were 3,959,417 births in 1999 (source: National Center for Health Statistics).
  13. DISABLED – The number of Americans receiving disability benefits from Social Security has increased from 4.88 million as of 12/31/99 to 8.94 million as of 12/31/13, an increase of +83% (source: Social Security).
  14. DON’T COUNT ON IT – 14.1 million Americans applied for disability benefits from Social Security over the last 5 years (2009-2013).  4.9 million Americans were awarded disability benefits from Social Security over the same period.  Recognizing that some of the 4.9 million that were awarded benefits applied for those benefits prior to 1/01/09, the “allowance rate” for receiving disability benefits is roughly 35% (source: Social Security).
  15. CAN’T YOU SEE? – MLB rookie umpire Seth Buckminster has had 7 calls overturned during the 2014 season (tied for # 1), including 2 calls made at 2nd base in single inning on 5/18/14 (source: Major League Baseball).


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