Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Kim Vo | Posted on: January 27th, 2017 | 0 Comments

1. OBAMA’S EIGHT YEARS – The S&P 500 gained +216% (total return) during the 2 terms and 8 years of the Obama administration, an average annual gain of +15.5%. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. FIRST QUARTER – Over the last 25 years (1992-2016), the S&P 500 has gained an average of +1.59% (total return) during the 1st quarter (January-February-March), a total that represents 17% of the index’s 25-year average annual return of +9.15%. 54% of the index’s overall gain has occurred during the 4th quarter (October-November-December) over the last 25 years (source: BTN Research).

3. OIL – The price of oil closed at $45.23 a barrel on 11/29/16, the day before OPEC agreed to its first production cut in 8 years. Now 2 months later, oil closed at $53.20 a barrel on Friday 1/27/17, up +18% (source: NYMEX).

4. DOUBLE-DOUBLE – The national debt increased +37% during Bill Clinton’s 8 years as US president, reaching $5.7 trillion as of 1/20/01. The national debt increased +86% during George W. Bush’s 8 years as US president, reaching $10.6 trillion as of 1/20/09. The national debt increased +88% during Barack Obama’s 8 years as US president, reaching $19.9 trillion as of 1/20/17 (source: Treasury Department).

5. THEY’RE CATCHING UP – China’s economy expanded by +6.7% in 2016, its smallest growth rate in 26 years (since 1990). The US economy grew by +1.6% in 2016. The US economy has grown by at least +6.7% just twice in the last 60 years, i.e., +6.9% in 1959 and +7.3% in 1984 (source: Commerce Department).

6. AMBITIOUS GOAL – On Monday 1/23/17 President Trump said that his administration will lead the effort to cut at least 75% of the business regulations imposed by government agencies (source: White House).

7. NOT AT THE CORPORATE LEVEL – Over 90% of American businesses are “pass-through” entities, i.e., the business income is reported on the business owner’s individual income tax return. “Pass-through” businesses include sole proprietorships, partnerships and S-Corporations (source: Tax Foundation).

8. VARIED OPINIONS – 19% of Americans were not financially impacted by our nation’s 2008 recession. Another 20% was negatively impacted by the downturn but have since fully recovered. The remaining 61% have either “somewhat recovered” (41%), “have not yet begun to recover” (13%) or “may never recover” (7%). 4,200 Americans were surveyed in April 2016 for this report (source: Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies).

9. OUTSIDERS – Just 5 of President Trump’s 15 Cabinet picks are politicians that previously won an election – Jeff Sessions (Alabama senator), Sonny Perdue (former Georgia governor), Rick Perry (former Texas governor), Ryan Zinke (House member from Montana) and Tom Price (House member from Georgia) (source: BTN Research).

10. THE FOUR LARGEST – 1 out of every 3 Americans (33%) lives in just 4 US states – California, Texas, Florida and New York. These 4 states were home to 107.5 million citizens at the end of 2016 out of our nation’s population of 323.1 million (source: Census Bureau).

11. TRADE WAR COMING? – 16% of US exports are sold to Mexico. 80% of Mexican exports are sold to the United States (source: Commerce Department).

12. SMALL NUMBER, BIG DOLLARS – National health care expenditures in the United States during calendar year 2016 were an estimated $3.4 trillion. Just 10% of Americans were the source of 65% of that total (source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Kaiser Family Foundation).

13. CHEAPER TODAY – The average price of gasoline nationwide was $2.29 a gallon as of Friday 1/27/17. The average price of gasoline nationwide in 1967 (i.e., 50 years ago) was 33 cents. After adjusting for 50 years of inflation, the 33 cent price in 1967 is equivalent to $2.42 in 2017 dollars (source: AAA, Department of Labor).

14. SPENDING HABITS – Fiscal year 2017 spending for the US government is projected to be $4.015 trillion, split between $2.538 trillion of mandatory spending (e.g., Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security), $1.207 trillion in discretionary spending and $270 billion in net interest costs. There are 12 different categories that comprise the $1.207 trillion of discretionary spending, the largest being the $592 billion allocated to “Defense” spending, i.e., 49% of discretionary spending (source: CBO).

15. ONE SCHOOL – Lynn Swann (MVP in SB # 10) and Tom Brady (MVP in SB # 36, # 38 and # 49) both went to Serra High School in San Mateo, CA along with baseball home run king Barry Bonds (source: BTN Research).

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