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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Kim Vo | Posted on: January 13th, 2017 | 0 Comments

1. NEW POTUS – In the 45 trading days since the 11/08/16 presidential election, the S&P 500 has gained +6.7% on a total return basis. Donald Trump will be sworn in as POTUS # 45 this Friday 1/20/17, the first president in our 241-year history with no government or military background. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. NOT TOGETHER – The total return of stocks and the total return of bonds have not been negative in the same year at any time over the last 40 years, i.e., 1977-2016. The S&P 500 index was used as the stock measurement. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate bond index, calculated using 6,000 publicly traded government and corporate bonds with an average maturity of 5 years, was used as the bond measurement (source: BTN Research).

3. MY DAY, YOUR YEAR – The worst day for the S&P 500 in 2016 (a total return loss of 3.6% on 6/24/16) is a greater loss than the worst year for the bond market at any time over the last 40 years, i.e., 1977-2016. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate bond index was used as the bond measurement (source: BTN Research).

4. HAND OVER THE KEYS – Lenders foreclosed on 379,437 homes in calendar year 2016 (an average of 1,037 per day), down 16% from calendar year 2015’s total (449,900) and down 64% from the number of foreclosures (1,050,500) that occurred in calendar year 2010 (source: RealtyTrac).

5. SPOILED ROTTEN GRANDKIDS – 43.8 million Americans (out of our 324 million citizens) have outstanding college loans, including 2.8 million individuals at least age 60. Only 27% of the 2.8 million seniors borrowed the money for their own education (source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau).

6. MORE THAN HALF THE STATES – Kentucky became the 27th state to enact a “right-to-work” law, passing its bill on Saturday 1/07/17. “Right-to-work” laws allow workers to “opt-out” of the payment of union dues as a condition of employment at a company. The legislation also bans a union from firing a worker who refuses to pay union dues. Kentucky is the 5th state to pass such legislation since 2012, after only 2 states had done so in the prior 30 years (source: Wall Street Journal).

7. ESTATE TAXES – The federal estate tax exemption is $5.49 million as of 1/01/17, i.e., a married couple would be able to shelter $10.98 million from federal estate and gift taxes. Only 0.2% of Americans that are expected to die in 2017 (an estimated 5,200 deaths) will leave estates that will be subject to the payment of federal estate taxes (source: Tax Policy Center).

8. EVERY DAY – The total debt of the United States on 1/20/09 (8 years ago on President Obama’s inauguration date) was $10.627 trillion. The total debt of the United States on 1/12/17 was $19.942 trillion. The increase of $9.315 trillion (over 8 years) is an average daily deficit of $3.2 billion (source: Treasury Department).

9. SLOW GOING – If GDP growth for 2016 that will be reported on Friday 1/27/17 shows growth of less than +3% for the year, it will be a record 11th consecutive year of “sub +3%” growth. The next longest streak in US history of “sub +3%” growth was the 4 years from 1930-1933 (source: Commerce Department).

10. FEWER COLLEGE STUDENTS – There were 19.0 million college students during the fall of 2016 (both undergrads and grad students), the 5th consecutive year (2012-2016) that the total number of students has declined on a year-over-year basis (source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center).

11. OWN A LOT – The federal government owns 28% of all the land in the United States, including 85% of Nevada and 65% of Utah (source: Congressional Research Service).

12. MOST EVER – Americans purchased a record 17.55 million new cars and light trucks in 2016, the 6th consecutive year of increasing sales for the US auto industry (source: Autodata).

13. PRO-BUSINESS – President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees for Secretary of State, Commerce and Labor have a combined 54 years as president or CEO of American businesses (source: BTN Research).

14. NEW AND OLD – Congress reconvened on Tuesday 1/03/17. The House welcomed 52 new members while the Senate has 7 new members. The average years of service in the House is 9.3 years, just short of the 10.1 years of average experience for senators (source: Congress).

15. TIGERS – Clemson stopped Alabama from winning its 5th national championship in the last 8 college football seasons (2009-16) on 1/09/17. Alabama has gone 100-11 over that 8-year stretch (source: BTN Research).

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