Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Kim Vo | Posted on: December 5th, 2016 | 0 Comments

1. NOVEMBER IS DONE – The S&P 500 gained +3.7% (total return) in November 2016, its 2nd best monthly performance this year (behind only March) and the best November result since 2009. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. LOSERS LAST YEAR – An equal investment at the end of 2015 into the 13 stocks in the S&P 500 that lost at least 50% last year is up a collective +60.4% YTD as of Wednesday 11/30/16 (source: BTN Research).

3. WINNERS LAST YEAR – An equal investment at the end of 2015 into the 7 stocks in the S&P 500 that gained at least +50% last year is up a collective +25.0% YTD as of Wednesday 11/30/16 (source: BTN Research).

4. RISK/REWARD – 134 individual stocks in the S&P 500 (i.e., 134 of 500 stocks or 27% of the stocks in the index) gained at least +20% during the first 11 months of 2016 (change of the stock price without including the impact of reinvested dividends) including 23 stocks that are up at least +50% YTD through 11/30/16. 144 stocks (29% of the stocks in the index) have dropped in value since the end of 2015 (source: BTN Research).

5. RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME – The 6 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 index YTD through 11/30/16 are in the semiconductor industry or are in the “basic materials” business, i.e., gold, copper, or oil & gas. Each of these 6 stocks is up at least +70% YTD (source: BTN Research).

6. THE SAME NUMBER – The size of the national debt as of 11/30/16 was $19.948 trillion. The market capitalization of the S&P 500 as of 11/30/16 was $19.931 trillion (source: BTN Research).

7. EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – US employers added +178,000 new net jobs during the month of November 2016, making it +1.982 million new net jobs that have been created YTD during 2016, an average of +180,000 per month. Our country’s 145.1 million employees nationwide are split 85/15 between the private sector (i.e., non-government workers) and the public sector (i.e., government workers) (source: Department of Labor).

8. DONE THIS BEFORE – President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a 1-time tax of just 10% on the estimated $2.5 trillion of profits held in overseas subsidiaries of US multinational firms instead of the top marginal 35% tax rate that may be deterring movement of the funds back to America today. A similar tax holiday was utilized in 2005 when a 5.25% one-time tax incentive (down from a top marginal corporate tax-rate of 35%) motivated American businesses to repatriate $360 billion back to the USA (source: Internal Revenue Service).

9. LONG-TERM GUESS – When President Franklin D. Roosevelt proposed the Social Security retirement program in 1935, FDR’s financial people projected that total Social Security expenditures would reach $1.3 billion in 1980 or 45 years into the future. Actual outlays in 1980 were $149 billion. Thus, the analysts’ 1935 estimate represented less than 1% of actual 1980 Social Security expenditures (source: Social Security).

10. INFRASTRUCTURE – Denver International Airport (DIA), which opened in 1995 at a cost of $4.8 billion, is the last major airport built in the United States. DIA covers 53 square miles, 4 times the footprint of the 3 major airports servicing the New York City area – Kennedy, LaGuardia and Newark Liberty (source: New York Times).

11. NEED MORE TO DO MORE – The national “gas tax” has been 18.4 cents per gallon since August 1993. Since August 1997, 4.3 cents (of the 18.4 cents) has been directed into the nation’s Highway Trust Fund to pay for the maintenance and expansion of our federal highways and transit projects (source: Department of Transportation).

12. THEY WANT OUT – If the “Yes California” referendum to secede from the United States is passed by California voters in 2019, it would still require an amendment to the US Constitution that must be approved by 290 (of 435) House members, 67 (of 100) Senators and 38 (of 50) US states (YesCalifornia.org).

13. SEE A TREND? – The US economy grew by +4.2% per year over the 24 years from 1950 through 1973, a period of worldwide economic expansion. The US economy grew by +3.2% per year over the 27 years from 1974 through 2000. The US economy has grown by +1.8% per year over the last 15 years from 2001 through 2015 (source: Commerce Department).

14. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE – The United States imported 30% of the energy it consumed in 2006, a dependency that has dropped to just 12% in 2016 (source: TerraJoule.us).

15. WHO? – Tiger Woods played last week in his first PGA tourney since August 2015. Woods is ranked # 898 in the world, behind # 897 ranked Sean Riordan and just ahead of # 899 ranked Simon Yates (source: PGA).

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