Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Kim Vo | Posted on: November 28th, 2016 | 0 Comments

1. A MONTH TO GO – The S&P 500 index is up +10.5% YTD (total return) through Friday 11/25/16. The index’s trailing 50-year average return is +9.7% per year over the last half century, i.e., 1966-2015. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. AWESOME, KEEP GOING – The S&P 500 has gained +285.4% (total return) from its 3/09/09 bear market low through the close of trading as of last Friday 11/25/16. This ongoing bull market is in its 93rd month. Only the 1990-2000 bull market that was into its 114th month before it peaked on 3/24/00 has lasted longer among the 11 bulls that have occurred in the last 70 years (source: BTN Research).

3. HIGHER AND HIGHER – After reaching another new all-time closing high on Friday 11/25/16, the S&P 500 has set 122 record closes in the ongoing bull market that began on 3/10/09, including 14 record highs in 2016 alone (source: BTN Research).

4. GOOD IDEA – President-elect Trump has proposed term limits for Congress, restricting senators to a maximum of 2 terms of 6-years each (12-year max), and limiting House members to 3 terms of 2-years each (6-year max), a plan (if applied retroactively) that would remove 258 of the 535 members (48%) of Congress (source: Time).

5. MAYBE TIME FOR NEW BLOOD – John Conyers (MI-D) has served in the House of Representatives since January 1965, i.e., just short of 52 years. Patrick Leahy (VT-D) has served in the Senate since January 1975, i.e., just short of 42 years (source: BTN Research).

6. SOMEHOW HE KNEW – On 11/17/87 (29 years ago), Donald Trump said ”I believe that if I did run for President, I’d win.” Trump was being interviewed after he was asked to host the annual Democratic Congressional dinner by then Speaker of the House Jim Wright (TX-D) (source: New York Times).

7. A LOCK? – As of the close of trading on the Friday before the presidential election (11/04/16), the bond market was showing a 67% chance of a rate hike at its 12/14/16 meeting. As of the close of trading on Friday 11/25/16, the bond market was showing a 94% chance of a rate hike at its 12/14/16 meeting (source: Federal Reserve).

8. ELEVEN YEARS LATER – The median sales price of existing homes sold nationwide during the month of October 2016 was $232,200. The median sales price of existing homes sold nationwide during the month of October 2005 (i.e., 11 years ago) was $229,000 (source: National Association of Realtors).

9. COST TO BORROW GOING UP – The concern of bond investors that a Trump administration could bring an increased level of borrowing by the federal government to pay for the President-elect’s national infrastructure rebuild program is having an impact on home mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.42% on 10/06/16, but has climbed more than ½ of 1% to 4.03% as of 11/23/16 (source: Freddie Mac).

10. MORE THAN CUT IN HALF – The percentage of home mortgage loans that are delinquent (defined as being at least 1 monthly payment late but not including those loans in the foreclosure process) peaked at 10.06% at the end of the 1st quarter 2010. That number has fallen to 4.52% as of the end of the 3rd quarter 2016 (source: Mortgage Bankers Association).

11. STILL THE AMERICAN DREAM? – The national homeownership rate in the USA as of 9/30/16 was 63.5%, down from a peak of 69.2% as of 12/31/04. Every 1 percentage point reduction in the homeownership rate represents 1.2 million households that have changed from homeowner to renter status (source: Census Bureau).

12. INCOME – The top 1% of US taxpayers earned 8.5% of the nation’s adjusted gross income (AGI) in 1980, rising to 20.8% of AGI in 2000, peaking at 22.9% of AGI in 2007 and finally dropping to 19.0% of AGI in 2013, the latter percentage being the most recent data that has been released by the government (source: IRS).

13. ANOTHER YEAR, ANOTHER TRILLION – Our nation’s national debt was $18.922 trillion as of 12/31/15, a total that has reached $19.898 trillion as of Wednesday 11/23/16 (source: Treasury Department).

14. EVERY DAY – An estimated 9,900 Americans will turn 65 years old each day next year (2017). This group represents the 7th year of 19 years of “Baby Boomers” turning age 65. An estimated 11,500 Americans will turn 65 years old each day in the year 2029 (source: Government Accountability Office).

15. WOW – When Alabama faced off against Auburn on Saturday 11/26/16 in the 81st annual “Iron Bowl” showdown, it was the 9th consecutive year that one of the teams was ranked # 1 or # 2 in the nation (source: BTN Research).

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