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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Kim Vo | Posted on: November 14th, 2016 | 0 Comments

1. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING – 2017 will have a Republican in the White House and Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate. Over the last 80 years, the S&P 500 has gained +11.7% per year (total return) when the White House and Congress were controlled by the same political party. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. WHOOPS – On the day of the 11/08/16 election, the political website “FiveThirtyEight” was projecting a 71.4% chance that Hillary Clinton (D) would win the presidential election with 302 Electoral College votes, 70 more than she actually won (source: fivethirtyeight.com).

3. GOT MORE, BUT LOST – Hillary Clinton (D) won the 2016 popular vote vs. Donald Trump (R). Clinton received 60.5 million votes, +395,050 more than Trump’s 60.1 million votes (source: Washington Examiner).

4. MANY STAYED HOME – 126.1 million Americans voted in the 11/08/16 presidential election, 3 million less than the number of voters in the 2012 election. The 126.1 million voters represent 56.8% of Americans that were eligible to vote, indicating that 96 million Americans that could have voted choose not to do so. The highest voter participation in the last 100 years was the 62.8% that voted in the 1960 election (source: BTN Research).

5. HOUSE – Using voting results through Friday 11/11/16, the House is now controlled by the Republicans 239-193 with 3 races still to be determined. The Republicans controlled the House 246-186 (with 3 vacancies) prior to the 11/08/16 elections (source: House of Representatives).

6. SENATE – Using voting results through Friday 11/11/16, the Senate is now controlled by the Republicans 51-46-2 with 1 race still to be determined (Louisiana). The Republicans controlled the Senate 54-44-2 prior to the 11/08/16 elections (source: Senate).

7. GOVERNOR RACES – Using voting results through Friday 11/11/16, the governorships across the country are now controlled by the Republicans 33-15-1 with 1 race still to be determined (North Carolina). The Republicans controlled the governorships 31-18-1 prior to the 11/08/16 elections (source: Washington Examiner).

8. GOT IT RIGHT AGAIN – The state of Ohio has correctly backed the winner of the US presidential election in the last 14 races, i.e., 1964-2016, including last week’s upset (source: PresidentElect.org).

9. JUMP ON – 5 days before the current bull market began in March 2009 only 18.9% of individual investors were “bullish” on US stocks. 38.9% of individual investors were “bullish” last week (source: AAII).

10. THE LAST MONTH – 20 of the last 25 Decembers have produced a positive total return for the S&P 500. The average December performance since 1991 is a total return gain of +1.78% (source: BTN Research).

11. DID I SAY THAT? – University of Pennsylvania finance professor Jeremy Siegel said he “wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1,000 point drop on the Dow” following Donald Trump’s victory on 11/08/16. Instead the Dow has gained +515 points since the election through the close of trading last Friday 11/11/16 (source: BTN Research).

12. INCREASE EVERYONE – Individual income taxes paid by American taxpayers would have to increase by +38% in order to eliminate our $587 billion deficit from fiscal year 2016 (source: Treasury Department).

13. IN JUST ONE YEAR’S TIME – As of the end of October 2016, the USA was domestically producing 8.52 million barrels of crude oil per day while we were importing 9.00 million barrels of crude oil per day, i.e., a 49/51 split between domestic production and foreign imports. As of the end of October 2015, the USA was domestically producing 9.16 million barrels of crude oil per day while we were importing 6.94 million barrels of crude oil per day, i.e., a 57/43 split between domestic production and foreign imports (source: Department of Energy).

14. AND WE’LL PAY HOW? – A child born in 2016 that begins kindergarten in the fall of 2021 would attend college between the years of 2034 and 2038. If that child attended an average private 4-year college and if the annual price increases for private colleges experienced over the last 30 years (+5.2% per year) continued into the future, the aggregate 4-year cost of the child’s college education (including tuition, fees, room & board) would total $490,502 or $122,625 per year (source: College Board).

15. TOOK A LONG TIME – When the Chicago Cubs beat the Detroit Tigers in the 1908 World Series finale, the game took 1 hour and 25 minutes. When the Chicago Cubs beat the Cleveland Indians in the 2016 World Series finale, the game took 4 hours and 28 minutes (source: Major League Baseball).

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