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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: May 9th, 2016 | 0 Comments

  1. SAME STAT, DIFFERENT LENGTH – The split between “up” days and “down” days for the S&P 500 is 54/46 for the last 100 trading days (through Friday 5/06/16), 54/46 for the last 1,000 trading days and 53/47 for the last 10,000 trading days.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  2. ONE MAN’S PREDICTION – Robert Kiyosaki predicted in his 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” that 2016 would result in the worst stock market crash in history.  Kiyosaki believed that as the first “baby boomers” (born in 1946) reached age 70 ½ and were forced to take “required minimum distributions,” stock values would fall significantly (source: BTN Research).
  3. DOWN LAST YEAR, UP THIS YEAR – Of the 25 individual stocks in the S&P 500 index that gained at least +25% (change of stock price not counting the impact of dividends) during the first 4 months of 2016 (i.e., YTD through Friday 4/29/16), 23 of the individual stocks suffered a loss in price during calendar year 2015 (source: BTN Research).
  4. MONTH AFTER MONTH – Since finishing at a bear market low close on 3/09/09 (i.e., 86 months ago today), the S&P 500 has gained +254% (total return).  The stock index has gained just +1% (total return) in the last 12 months but has gained +15% (total return) over the last 24 months (source: BTN Research).
  5. COST OF MONEY – The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has closed below 2% for the last 69 consecutive trading days (through and including last Friday 5/06/16), the longest stretch of sub-2% closes since the 10-year note had a streak of 187 consecutive trading days below 2% through 1/25/13 (source: Treasury Department).
  6. VERY LITTLE – 54% of 1,500 American adults surveyed have accumulated less than $25,000 of savings and investments (in both pre-tax and post-tax accounts), a total that does not include the value of personal possessions, any real estate or the present value of a defined benefit pension plan or Social Security benefits (source: Employee Benefit Research Institute).
  7. TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS – As of 4/30/16, the market capitalization of the US stock market is $23.9 trillion, the market capitalization of the S&P 500 is $18.9 trillion, the national debt is $19.2 trillion and the size of the US economy is $18.2 trillion (source: BTN Research).
  8. TOO MUCH DEBT – America’s national debt is 105% of the size of the US economy today.  Our national debt was 54% of the size of the US economy in 1960 (source: White House).
  9. MAKING LESS STUFFManufacturing in the United States represented 21% of the economy in 1980, falling to 12% today.  Manufacturing jobs in the United States represented 18.6 million jobs as of 12/31/80, a total that has fallen 34% to 12.3 million jobs as of 4/30/16 (source: Department of Labor, United Nations).
  10. CAN’T GET AHEAD – 45% of the 118 million households in the United States live “paycheck-to-paycheck” (source: National Endowment for Financial Education).
  11. WE’RE NOT TOTALLY HONEST – The US government projects that an average US taxpayer pays only 81.7% of his/her total federal income tax bill (mostly driven by unreported income), adding up to an estimated $458 billion annual “tax gap,” i.e., the difference between what all US taxpayers should have paid in federal income taxes vs. what they actually paid (source: Internal Revenue Service).
  12. JUST OK – The “gross domestic product” (GDP) of the United States grew by +0.5% in the first quarter 2016 (i.e., quarter-over-quarter change expressed as an annualized result), a performance that is greater than just 14 of the previous 100 quarters dating back to the first quarter 1991 (source: Department of Commerce).
  13. COLLEGE BOUND – Of the 2.97 million students that graduated from American high schools in 2015, 2.05 million (69%) were enrolled in a college or university in the fall of 2015 (source: Department of Labor).
  14. UNPOPULAR – 72% of Americans surveyed in April either have “no opinion” or are “opposed to” the “free trade agreements” that the USA has signed, e.g., North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (source: Gallup).
  15. HOOPS UPSET – The Denver Nuggets (33-49 regular season record) were the only NBA team to defeat both the Golden State Warriors (73-9 record) and the San Antonio Spurs (67-15) during the just concluded regular season (source: NBA).

 

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