Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: November 30th, 2015 | 0 Comments

1. JUST OVER A MONTH TO GO – The S&P 500 index is up +3.5% YTD (total return) through Friday 11/27/15.  The S&P 500 would have to gain +6.2% from now through the end of 2015 in order to gain +9.9% for the entire year.  The index’s trailing 50-year average annual return is +9.9%.  The last December when the S&P 500 gained at least +6.2% was in 2010.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research). 
2. OUTSIDE THE USA – 48% of the revenue of the average company within the S&P 500 is derived from sales made to foreign buyers.  59% of the revenue of technology companies within the S&P 500 is derived from sales made to foreign buyers (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices).   
3. RATE HIKE IS COMING – The yield on the US government 2-year note closed at 0.94% last Monday 11/23/15, the highest yield on the 2-year note since it closed at 0.96% on 5/04/10 or more than 5 ½ years ago.  As recently as 10/14/15, the 2-year note closed at 0.57% (source: Treasury Department).   
4. FUTURE SALE OF GREEK DEBT – Greece, which has not been able to borrow any money in the global debt marketplace since July 2014, hopes to issue sovereign debt in the first half of 2016 (source: Financial Times).   
5. TEN YEARS, NO GROWTH – The median sales price of existing homes sold nationwide during the month of October 2015 was $219,600.  The median sales price of existing homes sold nationwide during the month of October 2005 (i.e., 10 years ago) was $229,000 (source: National Association of Realtors). 
6. AMERICAN DREAM? – The national homeownership rate in the USA as of 9/30/15 was 63.7%, down from a peak of 69.2% at 12/31/04.  Every 1 percentage point reduction in the homeownership rate represents 1.2 million households that have changed from homeowner status to renter status (source: Census Bureau).  
7. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO QUIT – 42% of the 2.72 million Americans that quit their jobs in September 2015 live in the South, i.e., 16 southern states.  Only 14% of the 2.72 million Americans that quit their jobs in September 2015 live in the Northeast, i.e., 9 northeastern states (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).    
8. IMPACT OF INFLATION – An adjusted gross income (AGI) of $80,580 was required to rank in the top 1% of US taxpayers in 1980.  An AGI of $74,955 was required to rank in the top 25% of US taxpayers in 2013 (source: Internal Revenue Service).
9. PENALTY – Excluding individuals that have qualified for an exception, Americans not covered by Medicare, Medicaid, an employer’s plan or by a privately obtained plan must have secured health insurance for 2015 through a state or federal exchange or pay a 2015 penalty of “the greater of” $325 per person or 2% of income.  The 2016 fine is “the greater of” $695 per person or 2.5% of income (source: Affordable Care Act).   
10. WHERE THE MONEY GOES – There were 53.8 million Americans on Medicare as of the end of 2014.  The average Medicare beneficiary spends 23% of his/her monthly Social Security retirement benefit on “out-of-pocket” Medicare costs (source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).  
11. CAN’T WORK – 2.8% of America’s working-age population was receiving Social Security disability benefits in 1994, a percentage that has increased to 5.1% today (source: Social Security).  
12. PROGRESS – Our nation’s $439 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 (i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/15) represents a deficit of 2.5% of GDP.  Both numbers (i.e., $439 billion deficit and 2.5% of GDP) are the lowest numbers nationally since fiscal year 2007 (source: Congressional Budget Office).  
13. GOING UP – Since the nation’s debt ceiling was lifted on Monday 11/02/15 (i.e., 4 weeks ago today), our government’s outstanding debt has risen by $567 billion to $18.720 trillion.  Legislation signed into law by President Obama on that date suspends the debt ceiling limit until 3/15/17 (source: Treasury Department).     
14. EVERY DAY – An estimated 9,300 Americans will turn 65 years old each day next year (2016).  This group represents the 6th year of 19 years of “Baby Boomers” turning 65.  An estimated 11,400 Americans will turn 65 years old each day by the year 2029 (source: Government Accountability Office). 
15. NO WONDER THEY WON THE FOOTBALL GAME – The Green Bay Packers won Super Bowl # 1, beating the Kansas City Chiefs 35-10 on 1/15/67.  Of the Packers’ 22 starters on offense and defense, 9 Green Bay players have been elected to the NFL’s Hall of Fame (source: National Football League). 

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