Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: November 16th, 2015 | 0 Comments

1. NOT MUCH LEFT – With just 7 trading weeks remaining in calendar year 2015, the S&P 500 is up +0.1% YTD (total return) through the close of trading on Friday 11/13/15.  That return is well below the stock index’s 50-year (1965-2014) average annual return of +9.9%.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research). 
2. RECORDS – The S&P 500 did not exceed its record closing high from 10/09/07 until 3/28/13, a span of 5 ½ years.  In the last 31 ½ months (since 3/28/13), the S&P 500 has set an additional 107 all-time closing highs, including 44 more in 2013, 53 in 2014 and 10 YTD in calendar year 2015 (source: BTN Research). 
3. ABOVE AVERAGE – The ongoing bull market for the S&P 500 is the 11th for the index since 1950 and has reached 6.7 years in length.  The average length of all 11 bulls since 1950 is 5.0 years (source: BTN Research).   
4. JUMP ON – 5 days before the current bull market began in March 2009 only 18.9% of individual investors were “bullish” on US stocks.  34.3% of individual investors were “bullish” last week (source: AAII).    
5. THE LAST MONTH – 21 of the last 25 Decembers have produced a positive total return for the S&P 500.  The average December performance since 1990 is a gain of +2.0%, the best of any month (source: BTN Research).  
6. INCREASE EVERYONE – Individual income taxes paid by American taxpayers to the IRS would have to increase by +28% in order to eliminate our $439 billion deficit from fiscal year 2015 (source: Treasury Department).  
7. CRAZY NUMBERS – A child born in 2015 that begins kindergarten in the fall of 2020 would attend college between the years of 2033 and 2037.  If that child attended an average private 4-year college and if the annual price increases for private colleges experienced over the last 30 years (+5.5% per year) continued into the future, the aggregate 4-year cost of the child’s college education (including tuition, fees, room & board) would total $496,673 or $124,168 per year (source: College Board).   
8. SOMEWHAT LESS CRAZY NUMBERS – A child born in 2015 that begins kindergarten in the fall of 2020 would attend college between the years of 2033 and 2037.  If that child attended an average public in-state 4-year college and if the annual price increases for public colleges experienced over the last 30 years (+5.6% per year) continued into the future, the aggregate 4-year cost of the child’s college education (including tuition, fees, room & board) would total $224,887 or $56,222 per year (source: College Board).  
9. HERE AND THERE – As of the end of October 2015, the United States was domestically producing 9.16 million barrels of crude oil per day while we were importing 6.94 million barrels of crude oil per day, i.e., a 57/43 split between domestic production and imports.  As of the end of October 2010, the United States was domestically producing 5.59 million barrels of crude oil per day while we were importing 8.58 million barrels of crude oil per day, i.e., a 39/61 split between domestic production and imports (source: Department of Energy).       
10. IMPACT OF LOW RATES – With still 1 ½ months to go in calendar year 2015, more money has been raised in the United States through corporate debt offerings ($815 billion) than in any year in our nation’s history.  The old record ($746 billion) was set in calendar year 2014 (source: Dealogic).   
11. WHAT THE WEALTHY DO – 17% of the net worth of American households is held in pre-tax accounts, e.g., pension plans, 401(k)s, IRAs.  However, the top 1% of American households (ranked by wealth) has only 8% of their net worth in pre-tax accounts (source: Federal Reserve).   
12. REPUTATION DESERVED? – 5 out of 9 adults surveyed worldwide (55%) in September 2015 believe that capitalism results in the “rich getting richer” and the “poor getting poorer.”  More than 1,000 adults in 7 nations were surveyed globally (source: Legatum Institute).   
13. GENDER SPECIFIC – 67% of the 5.1 million Americans suffering from Alzheimer’s disease in the United States today are women (source: Brigham and Women’s Hospital).   
14. SHAKEN, NOT STIRRED – The 24th James Bond movie (“Spectre”) was released in America on Friday 11/06/15.  The movie cost $303 million to make (the most expensive Bond movie ever), including $34 million of cars destroyed during filming (source: Daily Mail).     
15. FOOTBALL – Through week 9 of the NFL season (i.e., as of 11/09/15), 3 teams (Patriots, Bengals and Panthers) were 8-0, the 1st time more than 2 teams have begun a season with an 8-game winning streak (source: NFL). 

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