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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: September 28th, 2015 | 0 Comments

  1. LONG TERM vs. SHORT-TERM – The all-time closing high for the S&P 500 was 2131 on 5/21/15.  The average return for the index for the 3 years ending 5/31/15 was +19.7% per year (total return), twice as large as the +9.9% per year average for the index over the last 50 years (1965-2014).  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).   
  2. RIGHT BEFORE IT TURNED – Before beginning a bull market run that started in March 2009, the S&P 500 closed at a bear market low of 677 on 3/09/09.  The average return for the index for the 2 years ending 2/28/09 (just 9 days before the bottom) was a loss of 26.1% per year (total return) (source: BTN Research).  
  3. IT’S ALL ABOUT THE EARNINGS – The “as reported” earnings per share for the companies of the S&P 500 (i.e., GAAP earnings) are calculated on a quarterly basis.  On a trailing 12 month basis as of 9/30/14, “as reported” EPS hit an all-time peak of $105.96.  Since 9/30/14, the “as reported” EPS on a trailing 12 month basis have fallen 10.4% to $94.91 as of 6/30/15.  The S&P 500 closed at 1972 on 9/30/14.  The S&P 500 closed last week at 1931 on Friday 9/25/15 (source: BTN Research).       
  4. HUGE – The US stock market was worth $24.7 trillion as of 6/30/15.  The S&P 500 made up 78% of the total US stock market capitalization as of 6/30/15, equal to $19.2 trillion (source: BTN Research).  
  5. BIGGER THAN HUGE – The US bond market (including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt) was worth $39.49 trillion as of 6/30/15.  The US bond market was worth $11.60 trillion as of 12/31/95 (source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association).    
  6. DIDN’T HAPPEN – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) notes that were released following their 9/17/14 meeting (i.e., a year ago) indicated the Fed expected that its target rate (for short-term interest rates) would be “1.25% to 1.50%” by 12/31/15, suggesting that 5 rate hikes of 0.25% each would occur between 9/17/14 and 12/31/15 (source: FOMC).  
  7. AT LEAST THAT MUCH – 21% of 1,003 pre-retirees surveyed in the first quarter 2015 believe they will need to accumulate at least $1 million in order to “live comfortably” during their retirement years, up from 15% in 2005 (source: Employee Benefit Research Institute Retirement Confidence Survey).  
  8.  I WANT TO BE P.O.T.U.S. – After Rick Perry and Scott Walker pulled out of the race for the White House, there are still 21 presidential candidates, including 16 Republicans and 5 Democrats (source: BTN Research).  
  9. TARNISHED – Over the 10 years 2004-13, 5.0 million people moved out of California while 3.9 million people moved into California, a net drop in population of 1.1 million for the Golden State (source: Sacramento Bee).   
  10. DOUBLE-DOUBLE – Fiscal year 2016 (10/01/15 to 9/30/16) begins this Thursday.  The US government is projecting outlays of $3.987 trillion for the upcoming 12 month period.  Outlays have grown from $1 trillion in 1987, to $2 trillion in 2002 to a projected $4 trillion in 2016 (source: Office of Management and Budget).  
  11. SEQUESTRATION – The $1.2 trillion of automatic spending cuts (“sequestration”) scheduled to take place over the 9 years of 2013-2021 resulted because Congress failed in December 2011 to agree on at least $1.5 trillion of deficit reductions.  As the spending cuts began on 1/01/13, the $1.2 trillion represented just 3% of projected government spending ($40.3 trillion) over the entire 9-year period (source: Congressional Budget Office).   
  12. HOW LONG? – If the government does initiate either a complete or a partial shutdown as of midnight 9/30/15, it will be the 13th government slowdown since 1980.  Of the previous 12, the first 9 lasted 3 days or less.  Only the 10th (5 days), the 11th (21 days) and the 12th (16 days) were longer in duration (source: Congress).     
  13. THE IMPACT? – A shutdown of the government resulting from disputes in Congress over fiscal year 2016 spending plans will reduce 4th Q 2015 GDP growth by at least 0.1% for each week of the shutdown (source: CRS).  
  14. GREECE – The liberal Syriza party won 145 seats (out of 300 seats) in the 9/20/15 Greek election and formed a coalition government last week with the 10 seats provided by the conservative Independent Greeks party.  Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras was sworn in as prime minister on 9/21/15 for the 2nd time in 8 months (source: CNBC).     
  15. FAMOUS ALUMNI – 3 different US high schools have had 2 Super Bowl MVPs each.  The 3 are Serra HS in San Mateo, CA (Lynn Swann and Tom Brady), Lincoln HS in San Diego, CA (Marcus Allen and Terrell Davis) and Newman HS in New Orleans (Peyton Manning and Eli Manning) (source: BTN Research).    

 

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