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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: September 4th, 2015 | 0 Comments

1. THREE vs. NINE – In the last 25 years (1990-2014), the S&P 500 has gained more on a total return basis during the 4th quarter (i.e., the months of October-November-December) than the index has gained during the other 3 quarters combined.  Over the last 25 years, the final 3 months of the year have gained +253.1% (total return) vs. a gain of +181.3% for the first 9 months of the year.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).


2. DEPENDS – An individual with $1 million invested 100% in the S&P 500 as of 1/01/73 withdrawing an inflation-adjusted $100,000 would have been out of money in 9 years.  A second individual with $1 million invested in the S&P 500 as of 1/01/82 withdrawing an inflation-adjusted $100,000 would have an accumulation of $4.46 million still remaining after 33 years (i.e., as of 12/31/14).  This calculation ignores the ultimate impact of taxes on the account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment or performance.  Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: BTN Research).


3. MORE THAN HALF THE GAIN – The total return of the S&P 500 over the last 5 calendar years (2010-2014) is +105.1% (total return).  The best 12 trading days during the 5 years (i.e., 12 days out of 1,258 total trading days) produced a +53.7% gain.  Thus, 1% of trading days over the last 5 years were responsible for 51% of the index’s total return (source: BTN Research).


4. BETTING ON LAST YEAR’S WORST – An equal investment completed at the end of the trading day on 12/31/14 in the 10 worst performing individual stockswithin the S&P 500 from calendar year 2014 is down a collective 35.0% YTD through 8/31/15 (source: BTN Research).


5. CHASING LAST YEAR’S BEST – An equal investmentcompleted at the end of the trading day on 12/31/14 in the 10 best performing individual stocks within the S&P 500 from calendar year 2014 is up a collective +1.4%YTD through 8/31/15 (source: BTN Research).


6. SPOOKY – 5 of the 7 worst percentage loss days for the S&P 500 in the last 65 years (i.e., dating back to 1950) occurred during the month of October (source: BTN Research).


7. THE BIGGEST DAYS – The 3 best percentage gain days for the S&P 500 in the last 65 years (i.e., dating back to 1950) occurred during the month of October(source: BTN Research).


8. MONEY IN – Tax receipts for fiscal year 2015 (i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/15) are projected to be 18.2% of the size of the US economy.  Tax receipts (as a percentage of the economy) haven’t been that high since 2001 and have exceeded 18.2% only 13 times in the last 85 years(source: Office of Management and Budget).


9. MONEY OUT – 55% of the outlays of the US government during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2015 (i.e., the 10 months ending 7/31/15) are from just 3 line items – Social Security (24%), National Defense (16%) and Medicare (15%).  Interest paid on our national debt makes up 7% of outlays (source: Treasury Department).


10. CRITICAL – Social Security retirement benefits represent at least 90% of the income for 28% of US seniors.  For 65% of US seniors, at least 50% of their income is from Social Security (source: Joint Economic Committee).


11. HALF – The unemployment rate in the 19-country Eurozone was 10.9% as of 7/31/15, a 3 ½ year low.  The unemployment rate in the United States was 5.1% as of 8/31/15, a 7-year low (source: Department of Labor).


12. NUMBER TRICKERY – The US government has reported a national debt of $18.152 trillion every day since 3/15/15, a numerical feat achieved through accounting maneuvers (source: Treasury Department).


13. WEST COAST WATER – 46% of California is currently experiencing an “exceptional drought.”  0% of Arizona is currently experiencing an “exceptional drought.” Drought conditions are measured on a continuum from “moderate” to “severe” to “extreme” to “exceptional”(source: U.S. Drought Monitor).


14. AROUND THE WORLD – In 2000, US exports of goods and services to China were less than half as much as the exports shipped to Germany, i.e., $21.5 billion vs. $45.3 billion.  By 2014, US exports of goods and services to China were more than double the exports shipped to Germany, i.e., $167.2 billion vs. $77.8 billion (source: Department of Commerce).


15. IN THE FAIRWAY TOO – PGA golfers have hit 17 drives of at least 400 yards during the 2015 season as of 9/01/15.  Bernd Wiesberger from Austria has the season’s longest drive at 428 yards (source: PGA).


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