Contact Info

2860 Michelle Drive, Suite 150
Irvine, CA 92606

Contact Us

Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: August 31st, 2015 | 0 Comments

  1. ROTTEN AUGUST – With just 1 trading day remaining in August 2015, the S&P 500 is down 5.2% for the month (total return), the index’s worst single monthly performance since May 2012.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research). 
  2. AND THEN WHAT HAPPENED? – The S&P 500 has been down at least 1% on each of at least 4 consecutive trading days just 8 times in the last 65 years, most recently over the 4 trading days that ended last Tuesday 8/25/15.  After the previous 7 times that this “4-day stock tumble” occurred, the S&P 500 averaged a +28.6% gain over the subsequent 12 months (source: BTN Research).     
  3. CHANGED MY MIND – The worst and the best trading days for the S&P 500 YTD occurred on 8/24/15 and 8/26/15 last week.  The worst and the best trading days for the S&P 500 during calendar year 2011 occurred on the consecutive trading days of 8/08/11 and 8/09/11 (source: BTN Research).   
  4. BEGINNING OF BEAR OR BUYING OPPORTUNITY? – From its Thursday 5/21/15 all-time closing high of 2131, the S&P 500 has slipped 6.7% to close at 1989 as of last Friday 8/28/15 (source: BTN Research).  
  5. DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTION – The 1,326 calendar days (from 10/03/11 to 5/21/15) that the S&P 500 went before beginning a 12.4% tumble (through Tuesday 8/25/15) is the 3rd longest stretch without a 10% or greater drop in the index in the last 50 years (source: BTN Research).   
  6. LAST QUARTER – The 3 months of October-November-December rank 5-3-1 in terms of average monthly performance (i.e., October is the 5th best, November is 3rd best and December is the best).  The 3 months have jointly gained +5.2% (total return) on average since 1990, or 54% of the index’s return (source: BTN Research).     
  7. NEW vs. OLD – The median sales price of a new home sold nationwide during July 2015 was $285,900.  The median sales price of an existing home sold nationwide during July 2015 was $234,000.  Thus, the premium paid for a new home vs. an existing home was +22% (source: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors).    
  8. ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH – Between 6/30/14 and 6/30/15, average home prices increased in all 50 states, with Colorado’s +10.6% average price increase leading the nation (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).   
  9. JUST AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER TO GO – The government is projecting a $426 billion deficit for fiscal year 2015 (there are 2 months to go in the 12-month period), a total that would represent the smallest national deficit since fiscal year 2007 (source: Congressional Budget Office).   
  10. ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF DEBT – China’s current $28 trillion national debt has quadrupled from $7 trillion in 2007 (source: McKinsey).  
  11. THEY NEED IT HIGHER – Even though it costs oil producers in Saudi Arabia (OPEC’s largest member) just $6 a barrel to bring oil up out of the ground, the Saudis needs an average oil price of at least $90 a barrel to cover the day-to-day expenditures of their country.  At $45 a barrel, Saudi Arabia is short $450 million a day in balancing their books (source: BTN Research).     
  12. STAYS THE SAME – Congress passed legislation in 1972 that implemented automatic cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) for Social Security benefits beginning in 1975 based upon the annual increase in consumer prices.  Since 1975, there have been only 2 years (2010 and 2011) when there was no COLA increase in Social Security benefits due to low levels of inflation.  The government is expected to announce in October 2015 that there will be no COLA boost to Social Security benefits in 2016 (source: Social Security).      
  13. FANNIE AND FREDDIE – Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced on 9/07/08 (i.e., 7 years ago) the government’s plan to take control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The Treasury Department initially pledged up to $200 billion of financial support in anticipation of future mortgage defaults.  Fannie and Freddie actually received $187.5 billion of taxpayer aid, but have paid back $230.7 billion for a $43.2 billion profit for taxpayers, equal to a +3.0% annualized gain (source: Treasury Department). 
  14. JUST THE BIGGEST – Although 1,427 insured commercial banks had some level of derivatives activity in the 1Q 2015, 4 banks are responsible for 91% of all derivatives business (source: Office of the Comptroller of Currency).  
  15. BEST – The St. Louis Cardinals have the highest winning percentage in MLB as of 8/27/15.  The Cardinals have the lowest ERA in baseball but are ranked 14th (out of 30 clubs) in team batting average (source: MLB). 


– Broker/Dealer Use Only, Reproduction Prohibited without Express Permission –

Copyright © 2015 Michael A. Higley.  All rights reserved.  Email mick.higley@mahbtn.com for subscription information.