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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: August 22nd, 2022 | 0 Comments

  1. WE DON’T TRUST THEM – 63% of 2,005 registered voters surveyed in January 2022 support a complete ban on stock trading for all members of Congress (source: Morning Consult – Politico).
  1. FED ACTION – As of Friday 8/19/2022 at noon ET, the bond market was priced to reflect a 54.5% chance that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates by 0.50 percentage points on 9/21/2022, and a 45.5% chance that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates by 0.75 percentage points on 9/21/2022 (source: CME Group).
  1. UNDER THE PILLOW – From 1/01/2020 (before the pandemic) to 5/27/2020, the size of the money market fund industry in the USA (both taxable and tax-free) had grown from $3.6 trillion to $4.8 trillion. From 5/27/2020 to last Wednesday 8/17/2022, the size of the money market fund industry had dropped off to $4.6 trillion but is still up $1 trillion from its pre-pandemic levels (source: Investment Company Institute).
  1. MUST BE DONE – The last time the “normal retirement age” for monthly Social Security benefits was raised was in 1983. 75% of 2,545 registered voters surveyed in April 2022 support raising the “normal retirement age” again in order to protect the financial solvency of the program (source: Program for Public Consultation).
  1. SOLID INDICATOR – The US economy contracted by 0.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2022 (i.e., quarter-over-quarter performance expressed as an annualized result) on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the 1st quarter of 2022. That’s the 8th time the United States has suffered 2 or more consecutive down quarters since 1960, meeting one often-used definition of a recession.  Officially, the United States has experienced 9 recessions since 1960 (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).
  1. SOME OWE NOTHINGTotal household debt in the United States reached a record $16.15 trillion as of 6/30/2022. 70.5% of the total is mortgage debt of $11.39 trillion, also an all-time record.  However, an estimated 23% of all US households are debt-free (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
  1. JUST ANOTHER TRILLION – From 12/31/2021 to Tuesday 8/09/2022, the US national debt increased from $29.617 trillion to $30.652 trillion, i.e., it has increased $1 trillion YTD (source: Treasury Department).
  1. WHY SO DIFFERENT TODAY? – The number of job openings in the United States was 10.698 million as of June 2022, off from an all-time peak of 11.855 million in March 2022. A decade ago (June 2012), the number of job openings in the United States was 3.911 million (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
  1. THEY HAVE COVERAGE – The percentage of Americans lacking health insurance coverage fell to just 8.0% (26.4 million people) in the 1st quarter of 2022, the lowest percentage ever for the United States. In 2010 before the “Affordable Care Act” (ACA) was implemented, 16.0% of Americans did not have health insurance, a total of 48.3 million people (source: Department of Health and Human Services).
  1. HAS HOUSING PEAKED? – After reaching an all-time US high of $457,000 in April 2022, the median sales price of new homes sold in the USA has fallen during the last 2 months to $402,400 in June 2022, its lowest level since June 2021 (source: Census Bureau).
  1. WASN’T ALWAYS THIS GOOD – The average home price in the United States increased +8.1% per year for the 10-years ending 5/31/2022 but that included an +18.3% increase in price for the 1-year ending 5/31/2022. In the previous decade, American home prices increased just +1.4% per year for the 10-years ending 5/31/2012 (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).
  1. IT STARTS OUT WEST – California had 563,070 electric vehicles (EV) registered as of 2021 or 39% of the US total. No other state had as many as 100,000 registered EVs (source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory).
  1. SPENDING MONEY YOU DON’T HAVE – As of 6/30/2003, credit card debt in the US was almost 3 times the size of student loan debt, i.e., $690 billion to $240 billion. By 6/30/2010, credit card debt ($740 billion) was smaller than student loan debt ($760 billion).  As of 6/30/2022, credit card debt ($890 billion) has been overwhelmed by student loan debt ($1.59 trillion) (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
  1. ALL IN THE FAMILY – One political party has controlled the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives in 24 of the last 65 years (37%), i.e., 1958-2022. Republicans last controlled the White House, the Senate and the House in 2018.  Democrats control all 3 this year (source: BTN Research).
  1. BIG BUCKS – The 2022-2023 PGA golf season begins on Thursday 9/15/2022 and runs through Sunday 8/27/2023, made up of 47 events that will pay out a record $428.6 million (source: PGA).

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