Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: July 18th, 2022 | 0 Comments

THIS STUFF HAPPENS – At last Friday’s (7/15/2022) closing of 3863, the S&P 500 stock index is at the same level it first closed at on 2/04/2021 or 17 ½ months ago. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

ONE AFTER THE OTHER – The S&P 500 was down on a total return basis in both the 1st quarter of 2022 (down 4.6%) and the 2nd quarter of 2022 (down 16.1%), off 20.0% YTD through 6/30/2022. That’s the first back-to-back “down” quarters for the index since the S&P 500 suffered 6 consecutive quarterly declines from the 4th quarter of 2007 through and including the 1st quarter of 2009 (source: BTN Research).

CHANGE FROM Q.E. TO Q.T. – The Federal Reserve began a reversal of “Quantitative Easing” on 6/15/2022 with its program of “Quantitative Tightening,” i.e., changing from monthly purchases of $120 billion of bonds to a monthly runoff of $95 billion of bonds. Fed analysis suggests that every $1 trillion of reduction of bonds from the Fed’s $8.5 trillion balance sheet would have the same impact as a 0.20 percentage point increase in interest rates (source: Federal Reserve).

AND YOU THINK NOW IS BAD – Inflation, as measured by the “Consumer Price Index,” was up +9.1% on a trailing 1-year basis as of 6/30/2022. That’s the 7th consecutive month that has reported inflation of at least +7% on a trailing 1-year basis. Between June 1978 and February 1982, the US suffered 45 consecutive months that reported at least +7% inflation on a trailing 1-year basis (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

HOW ABOUT YOUR CITY? – Since peaking at $5.02 a gallon on 6/14/2022, the nationwide average price of a gallon of gasoline has fallen 31 consecutive days to $4.58 a gallon as of last Friday 7/15/2022 (source: AAA).

INDICATOR OF WHAT? – The price of copper peaked at $4.92 per pound on Saturday 3/05/2022 but has since fallen 34% to $3.23 per pound on Thursday 7/14/2022. Copper is used in nearly all household appliances, in automobiles and in HVAC systems (source: MoneyMetals.com).

THEY TALK TO JUST A FEW – The monthly report compiled by the US government of “job openings” and “quits” is based on data collected from 20,700 American businesses. Those numbers are then used to extrapolate the “job openings” and “quits” for all 9.4 million businesses across the US, i.e., less than ¼ of 1% of businesses actually report information that is used to create the report (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

COLLEGE DEBT – 43 million Americans have student loans. Just 3 million of the 43 million borrowers each owe at least $100,000, while 32 million borrowers each owe less than $40,000 (source: Department of Education).

LOTS OF PEOPLE NEED HELP – Medicare covers 63.8 million Americans, while Medicaid covers 80.9 million low-income Americans. The US population is 332.9 million (source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).

END OF LIFE – More Americans died in 2021 (3.459 million) than in any year in US history (source: National Center for Health Statistics).

OLD FOLKS – 1 out of every 10 people in the world in 2022 (10%) is at least age 65. A projected 1 out of every 6 people in the world in the year 2050 (16%) will be at least age 65 (source: UN World Population Prospects).

COLLECT EARLY – Workers who are eligible for Social Security retirement benefits can take a reduced monthly benefit at age 62. Widows or widowers of deceased workers can begin a reduced benefit at age 60 (source: SSA).

LATE AGAIN – Work will continue this week in the House on 6 of the 12 spending bills required to authorize discretionary spending by the US government for the upcoming 2023 fiscal year, i.e., the 12 months that will begin 10/01/2022. The Senate has yet to take any action on the spending bills. Discretionary spending has been estimated to be $1.76 trillion in fiscal year 2023, 30% of total spending of $5.87 trillion. The last time Congress approved all 12 spending bills by the start of a fiscal year was October 1996 or 26 years ago (source: Congress).

NOT HAPPY WITH THOSE IN WASHINGTON – 77% of 900 registered voters surveyed in early June 2022 believe that “most members of Congress” do not deserve to be reelected to another term in office (source: Gallup).

BETTER THAN DAD – Over a 16-year NBA career with 5 teams, Dell Curry shot 45.7% from the field over 1,083 regular season games, scoring 11.7 points per game. Over his ongoing 13-year NBA career, Golden State Warrior superstar Stephen Curry (Dell’s son) has shot 47.3% from the field over 826 regular season games, scoring 24.3 points per game (source: Basketball Reference).