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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: June 1st, 2015 | 0 Comments

  1. NEAR THE BOTTOM – June is ranked 11th out of the 12 months for average total return performance for the S&P 500 stock index since 1990, i.e., the last 25 years.  Only the month of August has historically produced a poorer average stock performance than June.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).         
  2. THE BEST AND THE WORST PERFORMERS – The best performing individual stock YTD in the S&P 500 gained +83% through 5/31/15.  The worst performing individual stock YTD in the S&P 500 lost 38% through 5/31/15 (source: BTN Research).    
  3. SO FAR THIS YEAR – The S&P 500 is up +3.2% YTD (total return) as of Friday 5/29/15.  The stock index has set 10 all-time record closes this year (including the latest on 5/21/15) and the split between “up” days and “down” days through 5/29/15 is 46/54, i.e., more “down” days than “up” days this year (source: BTN Research).  
  4. SUMMERSTOCK – The 3 summer months (June-July-August) have produced an average loss of 0.3% (total return) for the S&P 500 stock index over the last 25 years (1990-2014).  However, the stock index has been up the last 3 summers (2012-13-14), gaining +7.9% during the summer of 2012, +0.7% during the summer of 2013 and +4.7% during the summer of 2014 (source: BTN Research).  
  5. SINCE YEAR-END – The # 1 performing stock in the S&P 500 during 2014 has fallen 12.4% YTD through 5/31/15, while the # 500 performing stock during 2014 has gained +2.8% YTD (source: BTN Research).    
  6. MUST NOT BE SATISFIED – Economist John Maynard Keynes predicted in 1930 (i.e., 85 years ago) that by the year 2000 Americans may choose to work as little as 15 hours a week because the bulk of their material needs would have been satisfied and a life of leisure would take precedence.  As of 4/30/15, the average American worker in the private sector works 34.5 hours a week (source: Department of Labor).  
  7. I’VE GOT TWO, YOU’VE GOT NONE – There are 6.99 million Americans who work multiple jobs (i.e., 2 or more jobs) as of 4/30/15.  There are 8.55 million Americans who are unemployed and continue to seek employment as of 4/30/15 (source: Department of Labor).     
  8. TOO MUCH EDUCATION, NOT ENOUGH SKILLS? – The nation’s percentage of recent college graduates aged 22-27 working in jobs that typically do not require a bachelor’s degree is 44.6% as of May 2015.  Surprisingly, the percentage of graduates “working below” their education level has not dropped under 40% going back to 2006 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).    
  9. MEDICAL CARE – Over the 10 years ending 4/30/15, national inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) has advanced +1.97% per year.  Over the 10 years ending 4/30/15, “medical care” inflation (i.e., 1 of 8 components that make up the CPI) has advanced +3.34% per year (source: Department of Labor).   
  10. COMPARED TO THE BIGGEST – The largest year-over-year increase in the CPI (up +23.7%) took place over the 12 months from 6/30/1919 to 6/30/1920.  Over the most recent 12 month period (4/30/14 to 4/30/15), the CPI was down 0.2%, i.e., average prices declined over the last year (source: Department of Labor). 
  11. SUMMERTIME DRIVING – The national average price of gasoline fell by 22 cents a gallon from Memorial Day 2014 to Labor Day 2014 (source: AAA).    
  12. PRICE OF GAS – 63% of the cost of gasoline is driven by the cost of crude oil.  Distribution and marketing (16%), taxes (13%) and refining charges (8%) make up the remaining cost (source: Department of Energy). 
  13. “ESTABLISHED BY THE STATE” – If the Supreme Court rules this month that individuals who purchased their health coverage through the federal insurance exchange do not qualify for premium subsidies, then 7.7 million Americans will see their monthly insurance premium increase an average of +257% (source: White House). 
  14. LONG TIME – The 9.531 million barrels a day of crude oil produced in the USA during March 2015 was the largest monthly total generated since May 1972 or 43 years ago (source: Department of Energy).  
  15. FOREVER – Cleveland will play Golden State for the NBA title beginning 6/04/15.  The city of Cleveland last won a national professional sports championship in 1964 or 51 years ago when the Cleveland Browns won the NFL title game (i.e., pre-Super Bowl era).  San Diego has the 2nd longest US drought without a pro sports championship, having last won the AFL football title in 1963 or 52 years ago (source: BTN Research).    

 

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