Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: March 31st, 2014 | 0 Comments

1. THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR – The S&P 500 is up +1.0% YTD (total return) as of 3/28/14.  The S&P 500 was up +10.6% YTD (total return) as of 3/31/13.  For all of calendar year 2013, the S&P 500 gained +32.4%.  The S&P 500 has gained an average of +10.0% per year (total return) over the last 50 calendar years.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
2. AVOIDING A CORRECTION – As of today, the S&P 500 has gone 909 calendar days (i.e., from 10/03/11 through and including 3/30/14) without a 10% or greater drop in the index, the 5th longest stretch without a double-digit pullback in the last 50 years (source: BTN Research).
3. ONE STOCK – The # 1 performing stock YTD in the S&P 500 (through the close of trading last Friday 3/28/14) was ranked # 47 (out of 500 total stocks) for all of calendar year 2013 (source: BTN Research).
4. TEN OR MORE – In the last 80 calendar years (1934-2013), the S&P 500 has experienced a double-digit total return percentage loss just 9 times.  Only 3 of the double-digit drops occurred in the last 39 years, most recently in 2008 (source: BTN Research).
5. APRIL ROCKS – The S&P 500 has averaged a gain of +1.77% (total return) during the month of April over the last 24 years (i.e., 1990-2013), ranking April as the 2nd best performing month during that period.  The month of December, up +2.03% on average is the top performing month.  The month of August, down 0.80% on average has been the worst performing month (source: BTN Research).
6. NEED MORE TIME? – The Obama administration has implemented 13 separate delays to statutory deadlines within the Affordable Care Act (ACA), including the latest on Tuesday 3/25/14.  The last of the 13 extensions to the ACA provided extra time for health insurance enrollees that were unable to complete the enrollment process by the 3/31/14 deadline because of “special circumstances.”  The # 1 delay to an ACA deadline was announced on 7/02/13 and provided a 1-year delay (to 1/01/15) of a requirement that large employers (with 50 or more full-time employees) offer health insurance coverage (source: White House).
7. FEWER AND FEWER – 1 of 7 individual tax returns filed for tax year 2012 (14.4%) reported adjusted gross income of at least $100,000.  1 of 28 individual tax returns filed for tax year 2012 (3.6%) reported adjusted gross income of at least $200,000 (source: Internal Revenue Service).
8. LESS THAN EXPECTED – Only 1 in 4 tax returns (24%) are expected to use the deduction for home mortgage interest paid during tax year 2015 (source: The Urban Institute).
9. MORE BUYERS THAN SELLERS – The number of existing homes for sales in the USA has been cut in half in less than 3 ½ years.  There were 4.0 million homes for sale as of 9/30/10, reducing to 2.0 million as of 2/28/14 (source: National Association of Realtors).
10. DB AND DC – Only 1 in 7 Americans (14%) in the private sector (i.e., non-government workers) are covered by a defined benefit pension plan.  2 in 5 Americans (42%) in the private sector are covered by a defined contribution retirement plan, e.g., a 401(k) plan (source: Employee Benefit Research Institute).
11. WHY DO THEY HAVE ANY DEBT? – 44% of retirees surveyed indicate that they are having problems with the debt they have outstanding (source: Employee Benefit Research Institute).
12. THE ECONOMY – The US economy grew by +1.9% in 2013.  In the last 50-years (i.e., 1964-2013), the US economy has grown by an average of +3.1% per year.  The US economy has contracted in size 7 years in the last 50 years, most recently in 2008 and 2009 (source: Commerce Department).
13. JUST LIKE RONNY – The nation’s unemployment rate averaged at least 7% during 6 of the 8 years that Ronald Reagan was president.  Reagan was in the White House from 1981-88.  The unemployment rate in the nation was 6.7% as of 2/28/14 (source: Department of Labor).
14. A DYING PIECE OF AMERICANA – The last new enclosed shopping mall built in the USA was constructed in 2006 or 8 years ago (source: CBS News).
15. NO UPSETS – Only 1 time in men’s NCAA basketball history have all 4 teams that were seeded # 1 gone on to play in the Final 4.  In 2008, # 1 seeds UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and eventual champion Kansas played in the Final 4 held in San Antonio, TX (source: NCAA).

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