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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: April 30th, 2022 | 0 Comments

  1. SHORT TERM AND LONG-TERM – The S&P 500 lost 8.7% (total return) during April 2022, its worst month since March 2020. Over the long-term, the S&P 500 has gained +12.3% per year (total return) for the 100 months through 4/30/2022, gained +9.8% per year (total return) for the last 200 months, gained +8.8% per year (total return) for the last 300 months, and gained +10.8% per year (total return) for the last 400 months.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  1. REDUCING RISK – Since peaking at $936 billion at the end of October 2021, margin debt held by US equity investors has fallen 15% to $800 billion at the end of March 2022 (source: FINRA).
  1. IT’S BAD EVERYWHEREGlobal inflation is projected to rise by +7.4% during calendar year 2022 (source: International Monetary Fund).
  1. ABOUT HALF – US inflation, measured by the “Consumer Price Index,” was up +7.0% during 2021. Three percentage points (out of the 7 percentage points) is a function of direct fiscal support from the US government and how American households spent the pandemic-related money (source: Federal Reserve Bank of SF).
  1. IS INFLATION THE REASON? – The US economy shrunk by an annualized 1.4% during the 1Q 2022, an 8.3 percentage point swing from +6.9% annualized growth recorded in the 4Q 2021. Other than the volatile swings in growth in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic, the US has not seen an 8.3 percentage point quarterly downward swing in the size of the US economy since the 4Q 1981 or 40 years ago when the economy went from a +4.9% growth rate to a 4.3% contraction quarter-over-quarter (source: Commerce Department).
  1. BIGGER THAN USUAL? – The Federal Reserve may raise short-term interest rates by 0.50 percentage points following their 2-day meeting this week (on 5/04/2022), action that was last taken by the central bank on 5/16/2000 or 22 years ago. Since then, the Fed has raised rates 27 times over 22 years, but every rate bump has been a 0.25 percentage point hike (source: Federal Reserve).
  1. SPEND IT NOW – From the end of 2019 (pre-pandemic) to the end of 2021, American households increased their “readily available cash” from $10.6 trillion to $14.7 trillion, an increase of $4.1 trillion of cash accumulated over the 24-month period (source: Federal Reserve).
  1. ADD TO POPULATION3.7 million babies were born in the United States in 2021. Nearly 3 times as many babies (10.6 million) were born in China in 2021, the lowest number of annual Chinese births based on records maintained since 1949 (source: US National Center for Health Statistics, China’s National Bureau of Statistics).
  1. DRAG ME OUT – It took an average of 917 days (2 ½ years) for banks to complete the foreclosure process on the 11,824 homes that were repossessed nationwide during the 1st quarter of 2022 (source: Attom Solutions).
  1. WHAT DID YOU BUY? – Nearly 3 of every 4 sales of “light vehicles” (73%) in America in 2021 were the purchase of trucks and sport utility vehicles, a percentage that rose to 80.5% of all “light vehicle” sales in March 2022, an all-time record (source: Edmunds).
  1. FOR MANY YEARS TO COME – The leasing of federal land in 9 US states (Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Montana, Alabama, New Mexico, North Dakota and Oklahoma) to domestic oil producers that began on 4/18/2022 could generate crude oil production past the year 2030 (source: American Petroleum Institute).
  1. IT PEAKED TWO YEARS AGO – The highest level of crude oil production in US history was 13.1 million barrels a day as of Friday 3/13/2020, the day President Donald Trump declared a national emergency due to the pandemic. As of Friday 4/22/2022, our national production of crude oil was 11.9 million barrels a day (source: Energy Information Administration).
  1. CASH FLOW – The 27 nations that make up the European Union buy an estimated $450 million per day of Russian oil and $400 million per day of Russian natural gas (source: Bruegel Think Tank – Brussels).
  1. YOUR NEW HOME – The United States will accept 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing their war-torn country. As of Friday 4/22/2022, 15,000 Ukrainians had arrived in the USA (source: White House).
  1. TOP PICKS – The first 5 picks in the NFL draft held last Thursday 4/28/2022 were defensive players, beginning with # 1 pick Travon Walker of Georgia. That’s the first time defensive players occupied the top 5 draft picks since 1991 or 31 years ago.  Defensive tackle Russell Maryland of Miami was the # 1 pick in 1991 (source: NFL).

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