Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: May 4th, 2015 | 0 Comments

1. SIX MONTH PERIODS – The 6-month period from November-April has gained +548.3% for the S&P 500 since 1990, 8 ½ times the +65.1% return achieved during the 6 months from May-October.  Both numbers are aggregate total return performance results calculated for their respective 6-month periods beginning on 5/01/90 and continuing through 4/30/15, i.e., last Thursday.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).          
2. THE AMERICAN DREAM – Of 116.2 million households in the USA in the 1st quarter 2015, 74.0 million (64%) were homeowners and 42.2 million (36%) were renters (source: Census Bureau).  
3. OWN A HOME? – America’s homeownership rate (non-seasonally adjusted) dropped to 63.7% in the 1st quarter 2015, the lowest nationally since 1990 (source: Census Bureau).  
4. JUST TWO MONTHS LEFT – Greece avoided its 3rd national bankruptcy in the last 5 years when they negotiated on 2/20/15 a 4-month extension with its creditors on their 2012 bailout agreement.  The 4 months is halfway done and runs out on 6/30/15 (source: BTN Research).  
5. BAD RISKS – Rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Puerto Rico’s general obligation rating to CCC+ (from a rating of B) on Friday 4/24/15, dropping them to the same credit rating as Greece (source: S&P).   
6. FLIP-FLOP – 22 individual stocks in the S&P 500 that finished in the bottom 20% of performers in 2014 (i.e., bottom 100 of 500 stocks) are in the top 20% of performers (i.e., top 100 of 500 stocks) YTD through 4/30/15 (source: BTN Research).    
7. SINCE YEAR-END – The # 1 performing stock in the S&P 500 during 2014 has fallen 4.2% YTD through 4/30/15, while the # 500 performing stock in the index during 2014 has gained +2.8% YTD (source: BTN Research).  
8. JUST GETTING STARTED – The current bull market for the S&P 500 will begin its 75th month next Saturday 5/10/15, i.e., 6 years and 3 months in duration.  Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets believes this bull will last 20 years, i.e., until 2029 (source: BMO Capital Markets). 
9. WEST COAST, MIDWEST – Just 2 San Diego companies made the Fortune 500 list (rankings based upon annual corporate revenue) while 5 Omaha companies made the listing (source: Fortune).    
10. THE MAGIC OF COMPOUND INTEREST – $1 growing at 8% on a tax-deferred basis will accumulate to $10.06 over 30 years.  $1 growing at 4% on a tax-deferred basis will accumulate to $3.24 over 30 years.  Thus, achieving a return 2 times as great will produce a balance more than 3 times as large over 30 years.  This mathematical calculation ignores the ultimate impact of taxes on the account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment or performance.  Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: BTN Research).      
11. HOW MANY LAWYERS DOES IT TAKE? – 159 members of the House of Representatives (37% of the House’s 435 members) and 54 Senators (54% of the Senate’s 100 members) hold law degrees (source: Congressional Research Service).     
12. BUYING AND SELLING – The 4 countries of China, Germany, Japan and the USA are the globe’s top 4 exporters of merchandise (i.e., goods, not services) as well as the globe’s top 4 importers of merchandise.  China is the world’s # 1 exporter.  The USA is the world’s # 1 importer (source: World Trade Organization).     
13. ONE MAN’S OPINION – Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners CEO, predicted on 4/27/15 that the US 10-year Treasury note will drop below 1% within the next year (the 10-year note closed at 2.03% on 4/30/15).  Minerd believes a weak US economy in the 1st quarter 2015, the “print-and-purchase” European QE program (quantitative easing) and the continuing purchase of American debt by buyers in China, Japan and Europe will push the 10-year note to historic low levels within 12 months (source: CNBC).    
14. RECORD LOW – The lowest close ever for the US 10-year Treasury note was 1.39% on 7/24/12.  10-year notes have been traded in the United States since April 1953 or 62 years ago (source: Treasury Department).  
15. NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE – The 2015 NFL Draft was conducted last week in Chicago.  Warren Moon (University of Washington) and Dave Krieg (Milton College) are 2 quarterbacks who rank in the top 20 in regular season total passing yards in NFL history and both went undrafted following their college careers (source: NFL).   

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