Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: April 11th, 2022 | 0 Comments

STOCKS – The S&P 500 is down 5.5% YTD (total return) through the close of trading last Friday 4/08/2022 but the index is up +4.8% (total return) since Russia invaded Ukraine on 2/24/2022. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

NOTHING – An estimated 57% of US households will ultimately pay no federal income tax in tax year 2021 as pandemic-driven legislation eliminated the tax bill of many American families (source: Tax Policy Center).

FUNNY MATH – In a 3/28/2022 release from the White House accompanying their 10-year budget projection, the Biden administration claims its “budget reduces deficits by more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years.” In reality, the White House’s 153-page release forecasts deficits of $14.4 trillion over the 10 fiscal years 2023-2032, the difference between $58.3 trillion of tax receipts and $72.7 trillion of outlays (source: White House).

WAS THE GRASS GREENER? – 11% of 2,067 American adults surveyed in February 2022 voluntarily resigned within the previous 12 months from a full-time job that they held (source: Harris Poll conducted for CareerArc).

INVERTED YIELD CURVE – About 6 ½ months ago (10/01/2021), the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note (1.48%) was 1.21 percentage points higher than the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note (0.27%). Last Monday (4/04/2022), the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (2.42%) had slipped under that of the yield on the 2-year Treasury note (2.43%). The last time the yield on the 2-year note exceeded that of the 10-year note was on 8/29/2019, 6 months before a recession began in the USA (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).

COSTS MORE – Since 12/31/2021, the average “principal and interest” (P+I) payment on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has increased $92/month per $100,000 borrowed. On 12/31/2021, the nationwide average mortgage rate of 3.11% translated into a monthly “P+I” of $428 per $100,000 On 4/07/2022, the average mortgage rate of 4.72% translated into a monthly “P+I” of $520 per $100,000 borrowed (source: Freddie Mac).

HOME BUILDING – 13 million single-family homes began construction in 2021, the 10th year of increasing home starts since this measurement bottomed at 431,000 in 2011 (source: Census Bureau).

WHO IS THE BUYER? – Investors, not homebuyers, are behind 33% of the purchases of single-family homes in the United States in today’s market, up 5 percentage points from the 28% of buyers that investors represented over the past decade (source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting).

TO THE SENATE – The House of Representatives passed HR # 2954 on 3/29/2022 (“Securing a Strong Retirement Act”), now sending the bill to the Senate. The legislation, designed to overhaul the current pre-tax retirement system in the US, includes an expansion of auto-enrollment in retirement plans, an increase in the age at which individuals must begin “required minimum distributions” from age 72 to age 75, and improving the access to employer-sponsored plans to part-time workers (source: HR # 2954).

NOT A LOT – The current session of Congress (the 117th, running from 1/03/2021 to 1/03/2023), has passed only 108 bills with 8 ½ months to go. The fewest number of bills passed in any 2-year session of Congress going back to 1973 is 284 during the 112th session of Congress that ended 1/03/2013 (source: GovTrack.us).

STAYING ALIVE – National health care spending in the United States was $4.3 trillion in 2021, 18% of our nation’s $24.0 trillion economy last year (source: Health Affairs).

MISSED DIAGNOSES – Using historical baseline screening rates, Americans skipped or cancelled 68,000 breast cancer screenings and 27,000 colon cancer screenings during the 10-months of January 2021 through October 2021 due to fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic (source: Epic Research).

CAN YOU AFFORD IT NOW? – 24% of 1,168 American retirees surveyed in June 2021 indicated that they had to pay for major home repairs during retirement (source: Society of Actuaries 2021 Retirement Risk Survey).

REPLACED BY WHAT? – The 27-nation European Union announced on 3/08/2022 that it will end its purchase of Russian natural gas “well before 2030.” Russia currently supplies 40% of the EU’s natural gas (source: EU).

COACH K – The first loss in Mike Krzyzewski’s record-setting 47-year head coaching career was a 12/10/1975 loss of Coach K’s Army team to Fairfield. His final loss occurred 16,915 days later on 4/02/2022 when Coach K’s Duke squad fell to North Carolina in the national semifinals. Overall his teams won 77% of the 1,570 games he coached (1,270) while losing just 368 games or less than 8 losses per year for 47 years (source: NCAA).