Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: April 4th, 2022 | 0 Comments

STOCKS – The S&P 500 was up +3.7% in March 2022 (total return), its first up month this year after negative results in January and February. The $40.3 trillion stock index is still down 4.6% YTD through 3/31/2022 (total return) but is up +15.6% for the 12-months ending 3/31/2022. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

BEST STOCK MONTH – April has been the # 1 best month for the S&P 500 index over the last 30 years, i.e., 1992-2021, gaining an average of +2.34% (total return). The month of November (average gain of +2.03%) is the # 2 best performing month over the last 3 decades (source: BTN Research).

DOUBLE-DIGITS – The S&P 500 index has appreciated at least +10% (total return) in 19 of the last 30 years (1992-2021), including 8 of the last 10 years (source: BTN Research).

TEN PLUS – The average US single family home has appreciated at least +10% in just 4 of the last 30 years (1992-2021). The double-digit years were 2004, 2005, 2020 and 2021 (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).

A LOT OF SPENDING – President Biden’s 10-year budget proposal released on 3/28/2022 forecast fiscal year 2023 (i.e., the 12 months beginning 10/01/2022) tax receipts of $4.64 trillion, outlays of $5.79 trillion, netting to a $1.15 trillion deficit. Biden’s proposal anticipates annual budget deficits of at least $1.15 trillion for each of the next 10 years, adding up to $14.4 trillion of deficit spending over the decade 2023-2032 (source: White House).

WEALTH TAX – President Biden proposed on 3/28/2022 a minimum income tax rate of 20% on the income and unrealized capital gains of households worth at least $100 million, impacting an estimated 20,000 households. Taxpayers impacted would have 10 years to pay the initial tax resulting from this change and would receive a future credit if the value of their assets dropped over the decade. If the household’s assets continued to grow in value, the individual would owe taxes of 20% on the annual change of their net worth (source: White House).

WAY UP – Per President Biden’s 3/28/2022 budget projection, Social Security outlays will increase by +79% over the next 10 years, Medicare outlays will rise +118% and interest costs will rise +213% (source: White House).

HEAD SHAKER – The White House forecasted on 3/28/2022 that our national debt will reach $44.8 trillion as of 9/30/2032 (i.e., 10 ½ years down the road), up from $30.3 trillion as of 3/30/2022 (source: White House).

LOW WAGES – 32% of the US workforce make less than $15 an hour, including 40% of women in the workforce and 25% of men (source: Oxfam).

PLANNING AHEAD – 22% of 1,061 pre-retirees (i.e., Americans still in the workforce) surveyed in June 2021 updated their estate planning documents since the pandemic began in the 1st quarter 2020 (source: Society of Actuaries 2021 Retirement Risk Survey).

REALLY DUMB IDEA – President Nixon, faced with rising inflation, implemented what was to be a 90-day freeze on prices and wages on 8/15/1971, controls that were largely kept in place until 4/30/1974. The price control strategy did not work. From 1974-1981, inflation (using the “Consumer Price Index” as the measurement) averaged +9.3% per year for the 8 years (source: Nixon White House).

POPULATION SHIFT – Per the 1950 US Census, Detroit was the 5th largest US city and Baltimore was the 6th largest US city. Per the 2020 US Census, Detroit is the 27th largest US city and Baltimore is the 29th largest US city (source: Census Bureau).

TWO-YEAR GRACE PERIOD – The 37 million Americans with “direct federal student loans” have not been required to make a student loan payment since March 2020, i.e., since the start of the pandemic. $1.3 trillion of the $1.6 trillion in total student loans are “direct federal student loans,” i.e., a loan made directly by the Department of Education (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

NEED RAIN – The water level at Lake Powell dropped to 3,523.13 feet on Thursday 3/31/2022, its lowest level ever. Lake Powell supplies water to Arizona, Nevada and California (source: Bureau of Reclamation).

HOOPS UNDERDOG – St. Peter’s, the darling of the men’s post season college basketball tournament, played its home opener of the 2021-2022 regular season on 11/23/2021 vs. Long Island University in front of just 434 fans in its 3,200-seat arena. The Peacocks’ final game of its season, a 69-49 loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels, was played before a sold-out 20,235 seat arena in Philadelphia (source: ESPN).