Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: March 28th, 2022 | 0 Comments

YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS – With just 4 trading days remaining in the 1st quarter 2022, the S&P 500 stock index is down 4.3% YTD (total return) through the close of trading as of last Friday 3/25/2022. The index, created in 1957, achieved 1 record closing high this year, reached on the 1st trading day of the year (1/03/2022). The S&P 500 consists of stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

STOCKS – The US stock market, including 4,266 public-traded companies on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges, was worth $53.4 trillion as of 12/31/2021 (source: Siblis Research).

BONDS – The US bond market (including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt) was worth $52.9 trillion as of 12/31/2021. Treasury debt ($22.6 trillion) makes up the largest piece of the US bond market (source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association).

BOBBY AXELROD – Next Monday (4/04/2022) is the 10-year anniversary of the signing of “The STOCK Act” by President Barack Obama on 4/04/2012, a bill preventing Washington lawmakers from trading stocks based on nonpublic information they gathered on Capitol Hill. STOCK is an acronym for “Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge.” The law does not provide a criminal penalty for violators but can impose a monetary fine. No member of Congress has ever been prosecuted under “The STOCK Act” (source: Senate Bill # 2038).

BUDGET NUMBERS – President Joe Biden is scheduled to release today (3/28/2022) his fiscal year 2023 budget proposal, i.e., a budget for the 12 months beginning 10/01/2022. In May 2021, a long-range forecast generated by the White House included a budget estimate for fiscal year 2023 that projected receipts of $4.6 trillion and outlays of $6.0 trillion, resulting in an estimated $1.4 trillion deficit (source: Office of Management and Budget).

EATING AT HOME – US grocery prices, i.e., “food at home,” increased by +8.6% over the year ending 2/28/2022. That compares to a +3.5% price increase for groceries for the year ending 2/28/2021 and a +0.8% price increase for the year ending 2/29/2020 (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

WE BOUNCED BACK QUICKER – Minutes from the Fed meeting that ended on 3/17/2021 (a year ago) anticipated that there would be no interest rate hikes implemented by the Fed until at least 2023. Instead, the Fed raised short-term rates on 3/16/2022 with indications that it may implement additional rate hikes at each of the remaining 6 Fed meetings scheduled in 2022 (source: Federal Reserve).

THAT WILL COST YOU MORE – 55% of 1,009 American adults surveyed in September 2021 do not pay the full amount of their credit card debt each month (source: GOBankingRates).

SMALL INVENTORY – From 12/31/2019 (pre-pandemic) to 2/28/2022, the number of existing homes for sale in the US have declined from 1.39 million to 870,000, a drop of 520,000 (source: National Association of Realtors).

PANDEMIC – On 3/31/20 (2 years ago) the Donald Trump White House announced that US pandemic deaths could be 100,000 to as high as 240,000 “even if social distancing guidelines are maintained” and that sadly “without strict efforts to control the virus” the death toll from COVID-19 could reach 2.2 million. Pandemic deaths were just 3,000 on 3/31/20. Pandemic deaths were 976,000 as of Friday 3/25/2022 (source: Trump White House).

JOB MARKET – The unemployment rate in the USA was 3.5% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic) and was 3.8% in February 2022. The number of unemployed Americans was 5.7 million in February 2020 and was 6.3 million in February 2022. The number of job openings was 6.9 million in February 2020 and was 11.3 million in January 2022 (source: Department of Labor).

WILL THEY BE ABLE TO REPAY? – Russia’s government has a $2 billion bond maturing a week from today (4/04/2022), Russia’s first maturing sovereign bond since its invasion of Ukraine on 2/24/2022 (source: Reuters).

OIL PRICE – In the month following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by +21%, i.e., from $92.81 a barrel (2/24/2022) to $112.34 a barrel (3/24/2022) (source: NYMEX).

MILLIONS AT RISK – Ukraine’s population is 43.3 million people. California’s population is 38.9 million (source: Worldometer).

A LOST ART – 40 years ago (1982), Rickey Henderson stole 130 bases, a record for MLB. Last year (2021), the Kansas City Royals led all MLB teams with 124 stolen bases. The Cincinnati Reds had just 36 stolen bases during the 2021 regular season (source: MLB).