Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: March 21st, 2022 | 0 Comments

“TIME IN” vs. “TIMING” – The split between “up” and “down” time periods for the S&P 500 index from 1950 to the end of 2021, i.e., the last 72 years, as measured by: Days: 54% up and 46% down; Months: 61% up, 39% down; Quarters: 67% up, 33% down; Years: 74% up, 26% down; 5-Year Rolling Time Periods: 79% up, 21% down; and finally 10-Year Rolling Time Periods: 89% up, 11% down. The S&P 500 consists of stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

SINCE THE WAR STARTED – The S&P 500 has gained +4.2% (total return) since Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday 2/24/2022 through the close of trading last Friday 3/18/2022 (source: BTN Research).

BEAR, THEN UP – The NASDAQ Composite index closed at an all-time high of 16,057 on Friday 11/19/2021. In the 4 months since then, the tech-oriented index fell 21.5% (total return), closing at 12,581 last Monday 3/14/2022. However by the end of last week’s trading (as of Friday 3/18/2022), the index rose to 13,894. The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: BTN Research).

IN THE NEXT YEAR – 2020 was the 10th year in the last 72 years, i.e., 1950-2021, that the US economy contracted. Our economy has rebounded the following year with positive growth 8 out of 10 times, including +5.7% growth in 2021 following its 3.5% contraction in 2020 (source: Commerce Department).

MID-POINT – 49% of the 157.8 million Form 1040s that were filed for tax year 2019 (a total of 77.9 million returns) reported less than $40,000 of adjusted gross income (source: IRS).

IT WAS PAINFUL BUT IT WORKED – The Federal Reserve increased short-term interest rates last Wednesday 3/16/2022, raising the federal funds rate to a target range of 0.25% to 0.50%. From 8/15/1979 to 3/18/1980, the Fed under Paul Volcker’s leadership raised the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to eradicate the double-digit inflation the US was experiencing at that time (source: Federal Reserve).

BORROWED TOO MUCH? – American lenders repossessed 7,418 homes during the first 2 months of 2022 (January-February), up +150% over the 2,973 repossessions that took place during the first 2 months of 2021 (source: Attom Solutions).

WORKERS NEED A PLAN – 10 US states have enacted legislation that provide “Auto-IRA” pre-tax retirement accounts for private sector workers who are employed by businesses that do not provide a pre-tax retirement plan option. The 10 states are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Virginia (source: Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives).

MORE THAN $3 TRILLION – President Joe Biden signed 2 major pieces of legislation in 2021 designed to boost the US economy. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act (HR # 1319) was enacted on 3/11/2021 and included $402 billion of stimulus checks for families based on household income. The $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (HR # 3684) was enacted on 11/15/2021 and included $559 billion of new infrastructure spending and $650 billion of previously authorized funding (source: White House).

NOT RENEWED THIS YEAR – $93 billion in Child Tax Credit payments were paid over the final 6 months of 2021 on behalf of 61 million children from 40 million families (source: Treasury Department).

WHO OWES WHAT – 35% of the 43 million Americans with student loans (15 million borrowers) have less than $10,000 of outstanding student loan debt (source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

SICK WITH UNPAID BILLS – 13% of the 23 million Americans with medical debt (3 million folks) have more than $10,000 of outstanding medical debt (source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker).

WATER NEEDED – 74% of the land in the western United States (covering 9 US states) is in a “severe drought” as of last Thursday 3/17/2022 (source: US Drought Monitor).

LEGAL OR NOT? – 18 US states have legalized the recreational use and sale of marijuana, in spite of the fact that the use and sale of marijuana remains illegal at the federal level (source: US News & World Report).

THE BARE MINIMUM – From 2011 to 2021, the minimum salary of a major league baseball player increased by $156,500, i.e., from $414,000 (2011) to $570,500 (2021). The MLB collective bargaining agreement signed on 3/10/2022 increased the minimum salary for the 2022 baseball season by $129,500, i.e., from $570,500 (2021) to $700,000 (2022). The most Babe Ruth made in any one MLB season was $80,000 in 1931 (source: MLB).