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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: March 21st, 2022 | 0 Comments

  1. “TIME IN” vs. “TIMING” – The split between “up” and “down” time periods for the S&P 500 index from 1950 to the end of 2021, i.e., the last 72 years, as measured by: Days: 54% up and 46% down; Months: 61% up, 39% down; Quarters: 67% up, 33% down; Years: 74% up, 26% down; 5-Year Rolling Time Periods: 79% up, 21% down; and finally 10-Year Rolling Time Periods: 89% up, 11% down. The S&P 500 consists of stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  1. SINCE THE WAR STARTED – The S&P 500 has gained +4.2% (total return) since Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday 2/24/2022 through the close of trading last Friday 3/18/2022 (source: BTN Research).
  1. BEAR, THEN UP – The NASDAQ Composite index closed at an all-time high of 16,057 on Friday 11/19/2021. In the 4 months since then, the tech-oriented index fell 21.5% (total return), closing at 12,581 last Monday 3/14/2022.  However by the end of last week’s trading (as of Friday 3/18/2022), the index rose to 13,894.  The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: BTN Research).
  1. IN THE NEXT YEAR – 2020 was the 10th year in the last 72 years, i.e., 1950-2021, that the US economy contracted. Our economy has rebounded the following year with positive growth 8 out of 10 times, including +5.7% growth in 2021 following its 3.5% contraction in 2020 (source: Commerce Department).
  1. MID-POINT – 49% of the 157.8 million Form 1040s that were filed for tax year 2019 (a total of 77.9 million returns) reported less than $40,000 of adjusted gross income (source: IRS).
  1. IT WAS PAINFUL BUT IT WORKED – The Federal Reserve increased short-term interest rates last Wednesday 3/16/2022, raising the federal funds rate to a target range of 0.25% to 0.50%. From 8/15/1979 to 3/18/1980, the Fed under Paul Volcker’s leadership raised the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to eradicate the double-digit inflation the US was experiencing at that time (source: Federal Reserve).
  1. BORROWED TOO MUCH? – American lenders repossessed 7,418 homes during the first 2 months of 2022 (January-February), up +150% over the 2,973 repossessions that took place during the first 2 months of 2021 (source: Attom Solutions).
  1. WORKERS NEED A PLAN10 US states have enacted legislation that provide “Auto-IRA” pre-tax retirement accounts for private sector workers who are employed by businesses that do not provide a pre-tax retirement plan option. The 10 states are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Virginia (source: Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives).
  1. MORE THAN $3 TRILLION – President Joe Biden signed 2 major pieces of legislation in 2021 designed to boost the US economy. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act (HR # 1319) was enacted on 3/11/2021 and included $402 billion of stimulus checks for families based on household income.  The $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (HR # 3684) was enacted on 11/15/2021 and included $559 billion of new infrastructure spending and $650 billion of previously authorized funding (source: White House).
  1. NOT RENEWED THIS YEAR$93 billion in Child Tax Credit payments were paid over the final 6 months of 2021 on behalf of 61 million children from 40 million families (source: Treasury Department).
  1. WHO OWES WHAT – 35% of the 43 million Americans with student loans (15 million borrowers) have less than $10,000 of outstanding student loan debt (source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).
  1. SICK WITH UNPAID BILLS – 13% of the 23 million Americans with medical debt (3 million folks) have more than $10,000 of outstanding medical debt (source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker).
  1. WATER NEEDED74% of the land in the western United States (covering 9 US states) is in a “severe drought” as of last Thursday 3/17/2022 (source: US Drought Monitor).
  1. LEGAL OR NOT?18 US states have legalized the recreational use and sale of marijuana, in spite of the fact that the use and sale of marijuana remains illegal at the federal level (source: US News & World Report).
  1. THE BARE MINIMUM – From 2011 to 2021, the minimum salary of a major league baseball player increased by $156,500, i.e., from $414,000 (2011) to $570,500 (2021). The MLB collective bargaining agreement signed on 3/10/2022 increased the minimum salary for the 2022 baseball season by $129,500, i.e., from $570,500 (2021) to $700,000 (2022).  The most Babe Ruth made in any one MLB season was $80,000 in 1931 (source: MLB).

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