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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: January 31st, 2022 | 0 Comments

  1. JANUARY – The S&P 500 is down 6.9% YTD (total return) with just 1 trading day left in the month. That’s the worst January performance since the index lost 8.4% (total return) in January 2009.  The tumble in 2009 continued through 3/09/2009 when the S&P 500 reached a 24.6% YTD loss.  The next day (3/10/2009) began an 11-year bull market that ran until 2/19/2020 when the global pandemic struck.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  1. DECLINES HAPPEN – When the S&P 500 closed at 4327 on Thursday 1/27/2022, the stock index was down 9.7% from an all-time closing high of 4793 set just a month ago on 12/29/2021. A decline of 10% would be the index’s 21st tumble of at least 10% (but less than 20%) in the last 50 years but would be its 6th since 2015.  Declines of at least 10% but less than 20% from a previous closing high are called “corrections” (source: BTN Research).
  1. BEARS TOO – In addition to stock “corrections,” the S&P 500 has suffered 7 “bears” in the last 50 years, i.e., declines of at least 20% from a previous closing high. The last S&P 500 “bear” was a 33.9% fall between 2/19/2020 and 3/23/2020, i.e., early during the global pandemic (source: BTN Research).
  1. REBOUND – After declining by 3.4% in 2020, the US economy rebounded with a +5.7% growth rate in 2021. The 3.4% shrinkage in 2020 was our 4th down year in the last 40 years (1982-2021), while the +5.7% growth rate last year was our best year since 1984 (source: Department of Commerce).
  1. MURPHY’S LAW – The total of “rainy day” funds held by our 50 states doubled from the end of fiscal year 2018 to the end of fiscal year 2021, i.e., from $68 billion to $113 billion (source: Nat’l Assoc. of State Budget Officers).
  1. BOUNCE BACK – After peaking at $58.6 trillion on 9/30/2007, household net worth fell 14% to $50.4 trillion as of 3/31/2009 (global mortgage crisis). It took another 3 years (to 3/31/2012) before household net worth exceeded the previous peak of $58.6 trillion.  After peaking at $118.4 trillion on 3/31/2020, household net worth fell 6% to $110.8 trillion (global pandemic).  It took just 3 months (to 6/30/2020) before household net worth exceeded the previous peak of $118.4 trillion (source: Federal Reserve).
  1. SELLING HOMES – The sale of existing homes nationwide peaked at 7.1 million in 2005, then fell for the next 3 years before bottoming at 4.1 million in 2008 but has climbed back to 6.1 million sales in 2021 (source: National Association of Realtors).
  1. NO DEBT – As of 9/30/2021, 26% of all US households (both renter households and owner households) are homeowners who have no mortgage debt on their primary residence, i.e., 33.3 million debt-free households out of 126.9 million households nationwide (source: MBA).
  1. WELCOME BACK TO WORK89% of the 25.5 million American jobs lost during the first 2 months of the global pandemic (i.e., between February 2020 and April 2020) have been hired back by employers as of the end of December 2021 (source: Department of Labor).
  1. UP – Compensation (wages and benefits) for civilian workers, i.e., all US workers except federal workers, military personnel and agricultural workers, rose +4.0% in 2021, its highest advance in 20 years (source: DOL).
  1. DRIVERS NEEDED73% of freight transported within the United States (by dollar) is moved by trucks (source: American Trucking Associations).
  1. PLUS TEN TRILLION – The US national debt reached $20 trillion on 9/08/2017. The US national debt reached $29.924 trillion on Thursday 1/27/2022 or less than 4 ½ years later (source: Treasury Department).
  1. PRINT AND PURCHASE TO END – The Fed’s balance sheet reached $8.38 trillion as of 1/26/2022, up from $3.76 trillion as of 1/08/2020. The first US pandemic death occurred in the week before 1/11/2020.  At last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, officials confirmed its asset purchase program, i.e., Quantitative Easing, will end in March 2022 (source: Federal Reserve).
  1. FUTURE OF CURRENCY?9 countries in the world have launched a digital currency. The Federal Reserve began a review of the pros and cons of a US digital currency in early October 2021 (source: Atlantic Council).
  1. TOM OR AARON? – The NFL conference championships football games that were played over the weekend – Chiefs vs. Bengals and Rams vs. 49ers – breaks a streak of 11 consecutive years (regular seasons 2010-2020) in which either Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers (or both) have played in the championship round (source: NFL).

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