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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: January 24th, 2022 | 0 Comments

  1. STOCK CORRECTION – After closing at an all-time high of 16,057 on 11/19/2021, the NASDAQ Composite index has fallen 14.2% (total return) over the next 2 months to close at 13,769 on Friday 1/21/2022. The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: NASDAQ).
  1. UP/DOWN – The S&P 500 index has been up 40 of the last 50 years, i.e., 1972-2021, gaining an average of +11.1% per year (total return).  The stock index has produced an average annual gain of +18.8% (total return) during the 40 “up” years while losing an average of 14.8% per year (total return) during the 10 “down” years. The S&P 500 is down 7.7% YTD (total return) through Friday 1/21/2022.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  1. WAS IT A BUBBLE? – The US stock market was worth $53.4 trillion as of 12/31/2021, 3 times the size of our $23.2 trillion economy. At the peak of the “Dot-Com” stock bubble in March 2000, the US stock market was worth 1.4 times the size of the US economy (source: Fund Manager Julien Bittel).
  1. COUNTED IN BOTH INDEXES – All 30 individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are part of the S&P 500 index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular indicator of the stock market based on the average closing prices of 30 active U.S. stocks representative of the overall economy (source: BTN Research).
  1. WHICH SHOULD YOU FOLLOW? – As of 12/31/2021, the S&P 500 represents 79% of the stock market capitalization of the entire US stock market, i.e., $42.4 trillion of $53.4 trillion. As of 12/31/2021, the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average represents just 22% of the stock market capitalization of the entire US stock market, i.e., $12.0 trillion of $53.4 trillion (source: BTN Research).
  1. A MILLION LESS – In the fall of 2019 (pre-pandemic), 15.47 million undergraduates were enrolled in college. In the fall of 2021, 14.44 million undergraduates were enrolled (source: Nat’l Student Clearinghouse Research Ctr.).
  1. NOT DONE YET – In 2008-2009, Congress authorized spending of $983 billion to alleviate the impact of the global mortgage crisis, an amount equal to 6% of the size of the $15.2 trillion US economy. In 2020-2021, Congress authorized spending of $5.73 trillion to alleviate the impact of the global pandemic, an amount equal to 25% of the size of the $23.2 trillion US economy (source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).
  1. POLITICAL TREND12 of the last 13 US presidents going back to World War II, i.e., Truman through Trump, saw his party lose House seats in the midterm elections during his 1st term in office. g., 40 Republican seats were lost in the House in November 2018 (Donald Trump’s midterm) while 63 Democratic seats were lost in the House in November 2010 (Barack Obama’s first midterm) (source: The American Presidency Project).
  1. FED JOBS – President Biden nominated 3 individuals – Sarah Bloom Raskin, Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson – on Friday 1/14/2022 to fill vacant positions on the Fed’s 7-member Board of Governors (source: White House).
  1. RISING PRICES, BOTH IN AND OUT – US import prices rose +10.4% in 2021, the largest year-over-year percentage increase since 2007. US export prices rose +14.7% in 2021, the largest year-over-year percentage increase in history based on data tracked since 1984 (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
  1. CARS IN DEMAND – The price of “new vehicles” increased +11.8% in 2021, dwarfed by the +37.3% increase in the price of “used cars and trucks” last year (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
  1. OIL USAGE – The government predicted on 1/11/2022 that US oil production of crude oil will reach 12.4 million barrels a day in 2023, setting an all-time record high. US oil production was 11.8 million barrels a day as of the final week of calendar year 2021, the highest level achieved last year (source: Energy Info. Admin.).
  1. THE AVERAGE AMERICAN WORKER – US private sector workers earned an average of $31.31 per hour as of December 2021 (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
  1. GOING MY WAY? – The 3 most popular states to move into during 2021 were Texas, Florida and Tennessee. The 3 states with the greatest outflow of people during 2021 were California, Illinois and Pennsylvania.  The rankings are based on more than 2 million rentals of moving trucks last year that involved a “1-way” interstate movement of furnishings, personal belongings and clothing (source: U-Haul Migration Trends 2021).
  1. MAYBE THIS YEAR? – Of the 8 NFL teams remaining in the playoffs as of Friday 1/21/2022, 3 football teams have never won a Super Bowl – the Buffalo Bills, the Tennessee Titans and the Cincinnati Bengals (source: NFL).

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