Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: January 3rd, 2022 | 0 Comments

FOR THE YEAR – The S&P 500 gained +28.7% (total return) during 2021, the 13th year in the last 25 years that the $42.4 trillion index has returned at least +15% (total return) for the calendar year. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

LONG-TERM – The S&P 500 has gained an average of +11.1% per year (total return) over the last 50 years (i.e., 1972-2021). The index has been positive in 17 of the last 19 years. Over the long-term, the S&P 500 has been up during 40 of the last 50 years, i.e., 80% of the time (source: BTN Research).

HIGH-FLYERS – The NASDAQ Composite gained +22.2% (total return) in 2021 and has gained +142.0% (total return) over the last 3 years (2019-2021), equal to +34.3% per year and its best 3-year run since 1997-1999. The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: BTN Research).

BOND INDEX – The taxable bond market was down 1.5% in 2021 (total return) but has gained +6.9% per year (total return) over the last 45 years (1977-2021). 2021 was the 4th down year for bonds in the last 45 years. The “down” years were 1994, 1999, 2013 and 2021. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, calculated using publicly traded investment grade government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage-related bonds with at least 1 year until final maturity, was used as the bond measurement. The index is a major benchmark for US bond investors (source: Bloomberg Barclays).

SMALL LOSS – The 1.5% loss (total return) for Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index in 2021 follows its 2-year gain of +16.9% (total return) in 2019-20, the best “back-to-back” years for the bond index since 2001-2002. The widely followed bond index was created in 1986 but has released backdated performance history calculated to 1976 (source: Bloomberg Barclays).

TIME IN THE MARKET – Since 1950 (i.e., 1950-2021), the S&P 500 index has been up 54% of 18,118 trading days, 61% of 864 months, 67% of 288 quarters and 74% of 72 years (source: BTN Research).

MISSING THE BEST – The total return for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years (1992-2021) was a gain of +10.6% per year (total return). If you missed the 30 best percentage gain days over the last 30 years (i.e., 30 days in total, not 30 days per year), the +10.6% annual gain falls to a +4.4% annual gain (source: BTN Research).

AVOID THE WORST – The total return for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years (1992-2021) was a gain of +10.6% per year (total return). If you avoided the 30 worst percentage days over the last 30 years (i.e., 30 days in total, not 30 days per year), the +10.6% annual gain rises to a +18.2% annual gain (source: BTN Research).

JOBLESS – The lowest (3.5%) and the highest (14.7%) unemployment rates in the United States since 1970 occurred 2 months apart in 2020. Our jobless rate in November 2021 was 4.2% (source: Department of Labor).

NEW HOMES – The median sales price ($416,900) and the average sales price ($481,700) of new homes sold in the United States both reached all-time record highs in November 2021, both on a nominal basis and on an inflation adjusted basis. A decade earlier (November 2011), the median sales price was $214,100 and the average sales price was $242,900 (source: Census Bureau).

LIVING JUST A LITTLE LESS – The life expectancy at birth of an American baby in 2020 was 77.0 years, down 1.8 years from 78.8 years in 2019 and the largest single-year life expectancy decline since 1943. The 2020 life expectancy number is just under the 2003 life expectancy of 77.1 years (source: Center for Disease Control).

TEN-YEAR TREASURY NOTE – The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note ended calendar year 2021 at 1.496%, up 0.583 percentage points from its 12/31/2020 close of 0.913%. The 10-year Treasury note yield was 0.501% on Monday 3/09/2020, its lowest closing yield ever. 10-year notes have been traded in the USA since 1790, i.e., 231 years of trading (source: Treasury Department).

HOUSING – The average interest rate nationwide on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.11% at the end of 2021. The all-time record low national average is 2.65%, set on Thursday 1/07/2021 (source: Freddie Mac).

OIL PRICES – The price of oil ended 2021 at $75.21 a barrel, up +55.0% from its 2020 close of $48.52 a barrel. Oil’s all-time closing high price is $147.27 a barrel as of 7/11/2008 (source: CME Group).

OVERSPENDING – The national debt of the United States was $29.495 trillion as of the close of business on Thursday 12/30/2021, an increase of $1.75 trillion during calendar year 2021 (source: Treasury Department).