Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: December 20th, 2021 | 0 Comments

REALLY LOW – Inflation, as measured by the “Consumer Price Index” (CPI), was up +1.4% for 2020. For the decade of the 2010s (1/01/2010 through 12/31/2019), inflation was up just +1.8% per year, the lowest decade of inflation in the USA since the 1930s. By comparison, the decade of the 1970s (1/01/1970 through 12/31/1979) suffered +7.4% annual inflation (source: Department of Labor). # 4, 1/18/21

ACCURATE? – The government surveys 60,000 households each month in order to estimate our nation’s unemployment rate, i.e., 60,000 households out of a grand total of 125.8 million households. That means data collected from 1 out of every 2,097 households is the source of our jobless rate (source: Department of Labor). # 10, 3/01/21

CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR – The last major tax reform in the United States was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on 8/10/93. 15 months later in the 1994 midterm elections held on 11/08/94, the House flipped from a Democratic majority of 258-176 to a Republican majority of 230-204, while the Senate flipped from a Democratic majority of 57-43 to a Republican majority of 52-48 (source: Congress). # 3, 4/12/21

FEWER KIDS – The US recorded 3,605,201 births in 2020, the 6th consecutive year the total has declined, and the smallest number recorded nationally since 1979 (source: National Vital Statistics System). # 7, 5/10/21

DID YOU NEED IT? – 40.3% of college graduates aged 22 to 27 are working in jobs in which they are “underemployed,” i.e., they are working in a job that typically does not require a college degree. Historically, 33.5% of college grads are “underemployed” (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York). # 13, 5/31/21

STOCKS AND HIGH INFLATION – In the last 70 years (1951-2020), inflation as measured by the “Consumer Price Index” (CPI) was been at least +5% in 12 different years, most recently in 1990. The S&P 500 has been equally split over the 12 high-inflation years, advancing in 6 years and falling in 6 years (on a total return basis). The average return for the S&P 500 over all 12 years is a gain of just +3.2% (total return) (source: BTN Research). # 2, 6/21/21

WEAR A MASK – Flu cases have dropped dramatically during the pandemic. The number of Americans testing positive for the flu during the 2020-2021 flu season was the lowest number recorded in 25 years (source: CDC). # 4, 6/28/21

AN AGING GROUP – 2 out of every 5 physicians (40%) in the USA today will be at least age 65 within the next 10 years (source: The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections form 2019-2034). # 12, 7/12/21

THEY HAD ENOUGH – 3.2 million Americans retired in 2020, a +56% increase over the average 2.05 million Americans who retired over the previous 8 years, i.e., 2012-2019 (source: Pew Research Center). # 5, 9/13/21

PANDEMIC COST – The average cost of care for an individual infected with the COVID-19 virus who has insurance coverage and required hospitalization is $29,000. That average cost soars to $156,000 if the patient required a ventilator and needed treatment in an intensive care unit (source: FAIR Health). # 13, 9/27/21

WHEN WILL THEY SPEND IT? – An estimated $3.3 trillion of additional cash has been accumulated in bank accounts by American households since the beginning of the pandemic, i.e., cash that would have previously been spent (and not saved) if the pandemic had not occurred (source: Longview Economics). # 11, 10/18/21

BONE DRY – California’s “Water Year 2021” (the 12 months from 10/01/20 to 9/30/21) was the 2nd driest year for statewide precipitation in its history. “Water Year 1924,” or 97 years earlier, was the driest year in California’s history (source: California Department of Water Resources). # 11, 10/25/21

UP AND DOWN – The nation’s personal savings rate, which soared during the early months of the pandemic, has now fallen back to its pre-pandemic levels. The savings rate was 7.5% in November 2019, rose to 33.8% in April 2020, and now has come back to 7.5% in September 2021 (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis). # 6, 11/08/21

FOR HIRE – Job openings in the USA have increased from 6.611 million as of 9/30/20 to 10.438 million as of 9/30/21, an increase of 3.827 million or 10,485 new job openings per day (source: BLS). # 12, 11/29/21

WONDER WHY? – 27.1 million Americans moved in the last year, 8.4% of the US population. That’s the lowest percentage of Americans that reported living at a different residence in an annual survey conducted since 1948. 25 years ago (1996), 16.3% of Americans moved in the prior 12 months (source: Census Bureau). # 8, 12/06/21