Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: December 13th, 2021 | 0 Comments

TWENTY OR MORE – The S&P 500 is up +27.2% YTD (total return) through last Friday 12/10/21. The S&P 500 has returned at least +20% (total return) in 11 of the last 30 years (1991-2020). The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

ABOVE THEM ALL – A year ago (12/21/20), Barron’s published the year-end 2021 forecast for the S&P 500 made by 10 Wall Street strategists. The 10 predictions ranged from a low of 3800 to a high of 4400. The index’s 12/31/20 actual close was 3756. The S&P 500 closed last Friday 12/10/21 at 4712 (source: Barron’s).

AT THE HIGH END – A year ago (12/21/20), Barron’s published the year-end 2021 forecast for the closing yield on the 10-year Treasury note made by 10 Wall Street strategists. The 10 predictions ranged from a low of 1.00% to a high of 1.50%. The 10-year note’s actual yield close on 12/31/20 was 0.913%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed last Friday 12/10/21 at 1.487% (source: Barron’s).

VERY LATE IN THE YEAR AGAIN – The all-time closing high for the S&P 500 of 4712 was set on 12/10/21. The S&P 500 has set its closing high for the calendar year during December in 13 of the last 19 years, i.e., 2003-2021, including December highs reached in 2019, 2020 and now 2021 (source: BTN Research).

ONE-PER CENT – To rank in the top 1% of US taxpayers for the 2019 tax year required adjusted gross income (AGI) of at least $546,434. That highly paid group received 20.14% of all AGI that was reported nationwide but they paid 38.77% of the federal income tax that was collected (source: Internal Revenue Service).

FIVE-PER CENT – To rank in the top 5% of US taxpayers for the 2019 tax year required adjusted gross income (AGI) of at least $221,572. This group received 35.93% of all AGI that was reported nationwide but they paid 59.44% of the federal income tax that was collected (source: IRS).

TAXES – The top 3% of US taxpayers in tax year 2019 reported at least $291,384 of adjusted gross income (AGI) but paid 52.10% of all federal income tax. The 97% of taxpayers who reported less than $291,384 of AGI paid the remaining 47.90% of federal income tax that was collected in tax year 2019 (source: IRS).

EVERYBODY IS PAYING LESS – The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was signed into law by President Trump on 12/22/17 and became effective 1/01/18, i.e., the tax cuts did not impact tax returns filed for tax year 2017. The average tax rate paid by the top 1% of taxpayers, i.e., federal income tax paid divided by adjusted gross income, dropped from 26.76% in 2017 to 25.57% in 2019. The average tax rate paid by the bottom 90% of taxpayers dropped from 8.38% in 2017 to 7.36% in 2019 (source: IRS).

IMPACTING MANY – 45% of American households surveyed in November 2021 indicate that rising domestic inflation has caused them “moderate” or “severe” hardship (source: Gallup).

AS LONG AS I’M HERE – Just 1 out of every 11 employees (9%) who were auto-enrolled in their companies’ 401(k) plans opt out of their participation in the pre-tax retirement plan (source: Fidelity).

HOME LOANS – Government-backed mortgages, e.g., FHA or VA loans, make up 50% of all home mortgages. The maximum government-backed mortgage loan in 2022 in a majority of the US will be $647,200. In high cost areas of the country, the maximum loan will be $970,800 (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).

MOSTLY OLDER FOLKS – As of 12/01/21, 75% of the COVID-19 deaths that have occurred in the United States since January 2020 were decedents at least age 65. Just 7% of the COVID-19 deaths were decedents less than 50 years old (source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

JUST DO YOUR JOB – Congress passed legislation on 12/01/21 that will avert a government shutdown until Friday 2/18/22. By that date, Congress must agree on discretionary spending amounts needed to complete 12 appropriation bills that are required for fiscal year 2022 spending, i.e., the 12 months from 10/01/21 to 9/30/22. As of Friday 2/18/22, fiscal year 2022 will be 39% completed (source: Congress).

THEY’RE IN EVERYTHING – 75% of the semiconductor chips manufactured in the world today are made in Asia. Just 12% of all chips are made in the USA (source: Semiconductor Industry Association).

HELPING THE SMALL MARKET TEAMS – 48% of the local revenue of every MLB team, i.e., local TV contracts, ticket gate receipts, concessions and parking revenue, goes into a “revenue sharing pool” that is split equally among all 30 MLB teams (source: MLB).