Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: December 6th, 2021 | 0 Comments

NOT A NORMAL YEAR – Over the last 12 months, i.e., 12/03/20 to last Friday 12/03/21, the S&P 500 has gained +25.6% (total return) and set 71 all-time closing highs. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

ONE OPINION – Jeremy Siegel, Professor of Finance at Wharton, predicted on 11/24/21 a target value of 5000 for the S&P 500 during 2022. The S&P 500 closed last Friday 12/03/21 at 4538 (source: Jeremy Siegel).

HOW MUCH WE USE – The US consumed 18.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2020. The all-time consumption record in the US was 20.8 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2005 (source: Energy Info. Admin.).

YOU WANT MY VOTE? – Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), an important swing voter in the “Build Back Better” debate, called on President Biden on 11/23/21 to restore the Keystone XL pipeline. Biden revoked the permit for the pipeline on 1/20/21. Manchin estimates the pipeline would provide the US with 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Canada (source: Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources).

FED JOBS – With the resignation of Randal Quarles at the end of 2021 and the expiration of Richard Clarida’s term on 1/31/22, the Fed’s 7-member Board of Governors will have 3 vacancies. President Biden has pledged to “bring new perspectives and new voices” to the Fed board (source: Federal Reserve).

STATES PAYING FOR MEDICAID – 27.2% of the total spending of the 50 US states in fiscal year 2021 was for Medicaid expenditures, a total of $722 billion (source: The National Association of State Budget Officers).

WHO WILL GET THE WORK? – HR # 3684, the “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” was signed into law by President Biden on 11/15/21. The bill contains $65 billion allocated to expand broadband assess throughout the country. The agency tasked with the disbursal of the funding is taking 6 months (to 5/15/22) to develop its selection process, e.g., the broadband speeds and prices that internet service providers will be required to offer (source: National Telecommunications and Information Administration).

WONDER WHY? – 27.1 million Americans moved in the last year, 8.4% of the US population. That’s the lowest percentage of Americans that reported living at a different residence in an annual survey conducted since 1948. 25 years ago (1996), 16.3% of Americans moved in the prior 12 months (source: Census Bureau).

START SAVING NOW – A child born in 2021 that begins kindergarten in the fall of 2026 would attend college between the years of 2039 and 2043. If that child attended an average public in-state 4-year college and if the annual price increases for public colleges that have occurred over the last 30 years (+4.9% per year) continued into the future, the aggregate 4-year cost of the child’s college education (including tuition, fees, room & board) would be $229,635 or $57,409 per year (source: College Board).

WAS PRIVATE, NOW PUBLIC – The cost of tuition, fees, room and board at an average public 4-year college for the current 2021-2022 school year is $22,690. The cost of tuition, fees, room and board at an average private 4-year college for the 2000-2001 school year, i.e., 21 years ago, was $22,240 (source: College Board).

NOT ENOUGH STAFF – 4 out of 5 (80%) childcare centers nationwide reported having staffing shortages as of June 2021 (source: National Association for the Education of Young Children).

EVERY DAY – An estimated 11,050 Americans will turn 65 years old each day next year (2022), i.e., 1 every 8 seconds. This group represents the 12th year of 19 years of “Baby Boomers” turning age 65. An estimated 11,525 Americans will turn 65 years old each day in the year 2029 (source: Government Accountability Office).

BACKSTOP – The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) took over 47 plans during fiscal year 2021, ensuring pension benefits to 34,000 current and future retirees of the 47 failed plans. The PBGC maximum guarantee is based on the age of the retiree and whether survivor benefits are selected, e.g., in 2022, the maximum monthly guarantee for a “straight-life” annuity for a 65-year old is $6,204.55 (source: PBGC).

BOTTLENECK – 20% to 30% of the glass bottles used in the beer, wine and liquor industry in America are imported, primarily from China, Germany, Italy, France and Mexico (source: Glass Packaging Institute).

BIG MONEY – The “Players Championship” for the men’s pro golf tour will conclude on Sunday 3/13/22 and will have the largest purse (at least $20 million) and the largest payout for the winner ($3.6 million) of any tournament on the men’s tour during the 2021-22 season, including the 4 majors (source: PGA).