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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: April 13th, 2015 | 0 Comments

  1. NINE IN A ROW – The S&P 500 gained +1.0% (total return) in the 1Q 2015, the 9th consecutive quarter that the stock index has risen.  The 9 straight quarterly gains is the S&P 500’s best streak since the index was up 14 consecutive quarters from the 1Q of 1995 through and including the 2Q of 1998.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).      
  2. TIME FLIES – The S&P 500 bull market that began on 3/09/09 is now in its 74th month.  The average bull market for the stock index since 1950 (including the current bull) has lasted 59 months (source: BTN Research).   
  3. A LOT MORE HERE THAN THERE – Health care spending per capita in the United States is +55% higher than that of neighboring Canada (source: The World Bank).  
  4. WHAT’S NEXT? – Inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) has advanced +4.1% per year over the 50 years ending 2/28/15, +2.0% per year over the 10 years ending 2/28/15 and has been flat (i.e., up 0.0%) over the 1 year ending 2/28/15 (source: Department of Labor).  
  5. IN A HUNDRED YEARS -Mexico sold 100-year government bonds last week, the 3rd time since 2010 that Mexico has sold 100-year bonds but the 1st time the debt offering was transacted in Euros.  The bonds (par value of 1.5 billion Euros) mature in March 2115 (i.e., 100 years from now) with a yield of 4.2% (source: Bloomberg).   
  6. AWASH IN OIL – The storage of US crude oil reached a record 482.4 million barrels as of Friday 4/03/15, the 13th consecutive week that a record total has been set.  The 482.4 million barrels are separate from any oil stored in the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve” which has a capacity of 727 million barrels (source: Department of Energy).  
  7. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION – US crude oil production hit 9.404 million barrels a day for the week ending Friday 4/03/15, the highest total of crude oil generated domestically since November 1972 when US producers were turning out 9.426 million barrels a day.  The US peak (10.044 million barrels a day) in crude oil production took place in November 1970 (source: Department of Energy).  
  8. THEM TOO – Saudi Arabia produced 10.3 million barrels of oil a day during March 2015, an all-time production record for the largest OPEC oil producer.  Their previous record was 10.2 million barrels a day set in August 2013 (source: Financial Times).  
  9. NOT UP TO SNUFF – The 75-year (1940-2014) average growth rate of the US economy (i.e., GDP annual growth rate) is +3.6% per year.  However, the actual growth rate of the US economy has reached +3.6% or greater in only 1 of the last 14 calendar years (source: Commerce Department).  
  10. HIGH AND DRY – Farms in the state of California account for 80% of the water usage in the state but create just 2% of the state’s economy.  California announced on 4/01/15 mandatory water restrictions intended to reduce its water usage by 25% (source: Public Policy Institute of California). 
  11. BANKING BUSINESS – Just 4 banks in the United States hold 92% of all derivatives nationwide as of the end of last year.  The face amount of the derivative contracts held by all insured commercial banks and savings associations was $220.4 trillion as of 12/31/14.  79% of the $220.4 trillion were interest rate derivative contracts (source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency).   
  12. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE – 1.4% of prime rated home mortgages were “seriously delinquent” (defined as 60 days or more past due) as of 12/31/14.  13.5% of subprime mortgages were “seriously delinquent” as of 12/31/14 (source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency).  
  13. TAXES THEY ACTUALLY PAY – The estimated 119 million taxpayers from tax year 2015 (i.e., returns that will be filed in 2016) reporting adjusted gross income up to $75,000 will collectively pay zero federal income tax (with an estimated 26 million taxpayers in this group receiving cash back due to refundable credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit) but will pay $310 billion of payroll taxes (source: Joint Committee on Taxation).   
  14. NICE INCOME – To rank in the top 1% of all wage earners (for tax year 2012) required an adjusted gross income level of $434,682 (source: Internal Revenue Service). 
  15. CALL ME MAYBE – Major league baseball (MLB) began the 2015 regular season on 4/05/15.  The first opening day for MLB was in April 1876 (139 years ago), just 1 month after Alexander Graham Bell patented the telephone in March 1876 (source: MLB). 


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