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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: November 8th, 2021 | 0 Comments

  1. INCREDIBLE – The S&P 500 has gained at least +30% (total return) on a trailing 1-year basis at the end of each of the last 9 months, i.e., February 2021 through October 2021. The next best stretch of “30% or more” trailing 12-months since 1990 was the 6-month period from November 1995 through April 1996.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  1. AT THE OTHER EXTREME – The S&P 500 suffered a negative total return on a trailing 1-year basis at the end of 21 consecutive months, i.e., January 2008 through September 2009, its worst performance run since 1990 (source: BTN Research).
  1. SEVEN MONTHS OUT – As of Friday 11/05/2021, the bond market was priced to reflect less than a 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates after any future Fed meeting until the 6/15/22 meeting (source: CME Group).
  1. INFLATIONWages and benefits for all civilian workers in the US increased by +1.3% in the 3rd quarter 2021, the largest quarter-over-quarter change since the 1st quarter 2003 (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
  1. PAYING A LOT MORE – The average price of a gallon of gasoline has gone up by more than $1 during calendar year 2021, rising from $2.253 a gallon as of 12/31/2020 to $3.421 a gallon as of Friday 11/05/2021. The last calendar year that experienced gas prices rising by at least $1 a gallon was 2009 (source: AAA).
  1. UP AND DOWN – The nation’s personal savings rate, which soared during the early months of the pandemic, has now fallen back to its pre-pandemic levels. The savings rate was 7.5% in November 2019, rose to 33.8% in April 2020, and now has come back to 7.5% in September 2021 (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis).
  1. TAX NUMBERS – The top one-tenth of 1% of US taxpayers (1 of 1,000) in tax year 2018 (the latest year for which tax data has been released) made at least $2,514,209 in adjusted gross income (AGI) and reported 10.3% of all AGI nationwide. The bottom 50% of US taxpayers (1 of 2) in tax year 2018 made less than $22,704 in AGI and reported 11.6% of all AGI nationwide (source: IRS).
  1. MOVING THERE – Of the 50 largest American cities per the 2020 Census, Fort Worth, TX experienced the largest percentage growth rate (+24.0%) over the last decade, while Detroit suffered the largest percentage loss (down 10.5%). Just 4 of the top 50 US cities lost population in the last decade (source: Census Bureau).
  1. BUSINESS BY STATE – Just 4 US states have economies worth at least $1 trillion as of 6/30/2021, including California ($3.3 trillion), Texas ($2.0 trillion), New York ($1.9 trillion) and Florida ($1.2 trillion). These top 4 states represent 37% of our nation’s economy (source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis).
  1. PREPARE TO START AGAIN – The 42.9 million Americans with federal student loans have benefited from a freeze on student loan payments that was implemented on 3/27/2020. The freeze, which will continue until 2/01/2022, includes a suspension of loan payments, a 0% interest rate during the freeze, and a deferral of collections on defaulted loans (source: Department of Education).
  1. IMPACTS TEACHERS AND FIREFIGHTERS – The “Public Service Loan Forgiveness” (PSLF) program provides a discharge of an outstanding federal student loan if the borrower works full-time in a government job (federal, state or local) or for a non-profit organization for 10 years, while making 120 “qualifying monthly payments” based upon an “income-driven repayment plan” (source: PSLF).
  1. ONE YEAR – The midterm elections will be held on 11/08/2022. All 435 House seats and 34 of 100 Senate seats will be contested.  The President’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms, while the President’s party has lost Senate seats in 14 of the last 20 midterms (source: American Presidency Project).
  1. MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION – As of last Friday 11/05/2021, pandemic deaths per week in the US have declined for 6 consecutive weeks, falling 44% over the period (source: NBC News, Meet the Press, First Read).
  1. UNDERSTATED?Global pandemic deaths reached 5 million on 11/01/2021. In May 2021, the World Heath Organization estimated that actual pandemic deaths could be +67% higher than reported because many countries lack the resources to accurately track pandemic deaths (source: Johns Hopkins University).
  1. THE TOP DOG – The highest paid college football coach in 2006 (15 years ago) was Bob Stoops of Oklahoma, making $3 million a year. The highest paid college football coach in 2021 is Nick Saban of Alabama, making $9.75 million this year (source: USA Today).

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