Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: September 27th, 2021 | 0 Comments

FOURTH QUARTER – Over the last 30 years (1991-2020), the S&P 500 index has gained an average of +4.78% (total return) over the final 3 months of the year (October-November-December), the best gain of the 4 quarters. 24 of the last 30 fourth quarters (80%) have produced a positive total return gain. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

DEALS EVERYWHERE – Merger and acquisition (M&A) deals globally are worth $3.9 trillion YTD through 8/31/21, on pace to exceed the all-time global M&A record of $4.3 trillion from 2007 (source: Refinitiv).

IN THE MIDDLE – After adjusting numerical data from the past for the impact of inflation, the US median household income reached an all-time high for 4 consecutive years (2016-2019), peaking at $69,560 in 2019. That streak ended in 2020 when median household income dropped to $67,521. Before 2016, the peak for median household income was $63,423 from 1999 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

HOW ABOUT YOUR FAMILY? – 63% of American households surveyed in August 2021 made a “large purchase” in the previous 4 months, including large household outlays for essential activities (e.g., housing related) and large expenses for non-essential activities (e.g., vacations) (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

MORE THAN JUST WAGES – For every $1 spent for wages and salaries in the private sector as of June 2021, employers spend an additional 45 cents on benefits, including paid leave, insurance, retirement plans and legally required benefits. Average private sector compensation is $29.48 per hour while the cost of benefits averages an additional $13.12 per hour (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

ANOTHER ONE THIS WEEK? – There have been 21 government shutdowns in history when our nation’s lawmakers failed to agree on spending bills to fund government outlays for a fiscal year that begins annually on October 1. The most recent shutdown, a 35-day stoppage that ended on 1/25/19, was the longest closure in history. 11 of the 21 shutdowns lasted 3 days or less (source: Congressional Research Service).

YOU HAVE TOO MUCH – The House Ways and Means Committee, the tax-writing committee in the lower chamber of Congress, passed legislation on Wednesday 9/15/21 that would force Americans who have retirement accounts with balances greater than $10 million to take an annual minimum distribution (that would be taxable) and to prohibit additional contributions to the account. The bill still has to pass the full House and the Senate before going to the president for his signature (source: Ways and Means Committee).

BILLIONS – In 2019 a total of 3,625 American taxpayers had $119.5 billion in “mega-IRAs,” i.e., pre-tax IRAs that had balances of at least $10 million (source: Joint Committee on Taxation).

VOTING – With a 220-212 majority in the House (there are 3 vacancies), House Democrats can lose 3 members and still pass legislation on a party line basis, i.e., 3 defections still provides a 217-215 margin (source: House).

BORDERING STATES – The 2 fastest growing states in the last decade are Utah, up +18.4% in its total population, and Idaho, up +17.3% (source: 2020 Census).

HOMES – As of 6/30/21, US home prices rose by an average of +17.4% over the last year, by +8.1% per year over the last 5 years, and by +6.5% per year over the last 10 years (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).

EVERYONE BOUGHT IN – 2 years before a polio vaccine was developed in 1955, the US reported 35,000 polio cases in 1953. The most recent polio case in the US was reported in 1979 or 42 years ago (source: CDC).

PANDEMIC COST – The average cost of care for an individual infected with the COVID-19 virus who has insurance coverage and required hospitalization is $29,000. That average cost soars to $156,000 if the patient required a ventilator and needed treatment in an intensive care unit (source: FAIR Health).

WHEN IS YOUR BIRTHDAY? – With 57 people in a room, there is a 99% chance that 2 people in the group have the same birthday. With 41 people in a room, there is a 90% chance that 2 people in the group have the same birthday. With 34 people in a room, there is an 80% chance that 2 people in the group have the same birthday (source: BTN Research).

HITTING BOMBS – 61 PGA golfers averaged at least 300 yards for “driving distance” during the 2020-2021 wraparound season, topped by Bryson DeChambeau’ s record setting 323.7-yard average. 20 years ago (2001), just 1 golfer (John Daly) averaged more than 300 yards per drive (source: PGA).