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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: April 6th, 2015 | 0 Comments

  1. SIX MONTH PERIODS – The 6-month period from November-April has gained +520.9% for the S&P 500 since 1990, 8 times the +65.1% return achieved during the 6 months from May-October.  Both numbers are aggregate total return performance results calculated for their respective 6-month periods beginning on 5/01/90 and continuing through 10/31/14.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).  
  2. HOT AND COLD – The best performing individual stock in the S&P 500 index during the first quarter 2015 gained +43%.  The worst performing individual stock in the S&P 500 index during the first quarter 2015 lost 35% (source: BTN Research).    
  3. WHOOPS! – The individual stock that was ranked # 53 (out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500) in performance for calendar year 2014 was up +39% last year.  That same stock however was ranked # 500 (out of the 500 stocks) in YTD performance through 3/31/15 while losing 35% in just 3 months so far this year (source: BTN Research). 
  4. DOWN THIS YEAR – 44% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 (i.e., 220 of 500 stocks) were trading at a price as of the close of trading on 3/31/15 that was lower than where the stock ended 2014 (source: BTN Research).  
  5. TRIPLE – The total market capitalization of the US stock market was $25 trillion as of 3/31/15.  At its bear market low on 3/09/09, the total market capitalization was $8 trillion (source: BTN Research).     
  6. WHEN INTEREST RATES GO UP – The last time the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes was almost 11 years ago.  Over the 2-year period from 6/30/04 to 6/29/06, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates 17 times.  The S&P 500 gained +15.5% (total return) over the 2-years beginning 6/30/04, i.e., aggregate total return for the 2-year period, not per year (source: BTN Research).  
  7. THE NEW NORM – The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 1.85% on 4/03/15, the 38th day (out of 64 trading days in 2015) that the yield on the 10-year note has closed below 2%.  From January 1962 to the end of August 2011, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed below 2% on 0 trading days, i.e., never.  The yield on the 10-year note has closed below 2% on 39% of the trading days since 9/01/11 (source: BTN Research.  
  8. GOOD MOVE – The personal savings rate in the USA was 5.8% as of 2/28/15.  The personal savings rate in the USA was 0.8% as of 4/30/05, a record low in the country.  The rate is defined as “savings” (i.e., after-tax income less consumption spending) divided by after-tax income (source: Department of Commerce).  
  9. ANOTHER DOWN MONTH – The price of oil closed at $47.81 a barrel on 3/31/15, down from $49.76 a barrel as of 2/28/15.  March was the 8th month in the last 9 months (July 2014 through and including March 2015) that the price of oil has fallen (source: NYMEX).  
  10. FIVE-YEAR LOW – The trade deficit for the United States (i.e., imports in excess of exports) for February 2015 was $35.44 billion, the nation’s smallest monthly deficit since October 2009 (source: Department of Commerce).    
  11. FLIP-FLOPPED – Government spending during fiscal year 2015 (the 12 months ending 9/30/15) is projected to be 69% mandatory spending and 31% discretionary spending.  Government spending during fiscal year 1962 (the 12 months ending 9/30/62) was 32% mandatory spending and 68% discretionary spending (source: Office of Management and Budget).
  12. LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM – 47% of 1,035 American adults surveyed admit that they would extinguish their existing emergency savings in 90 days or less (source: NeighborWorks America). 
  13. TAXING BUSINESSES – Corporations can “carry-back” losses usually for up to 2 years (3 years if the loss is the result of theft or casualty) and “carry-forward” losses for typically up to 7 years (to as long as 20 years in certain circumstances).  Please consult a tax expert for details as laws do vary by state (source: Lawyers.com).   
  14. HALF AS MUCH – Corporate income taxes are expected to represent 10.8% of total government tax receipts during fiscal year 2015, i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/15.  Corporate income taxes were 21.8% of total government tax receipts during fiscal year 1965, i.e., 50 years ago (source: Office of Management and Budget).  
  15. CHANGING OF THE GUARD – Pro golfer Tiger Woods is ranked # 104 in the world as of 3/29/15, the first week that Woods has been ranked outside of the world’s top 100 golfers since 9/28/96.  Rory McIlroy, the world’s current # 1 ranked golfer, was 7 years old on 9/28/96 (source: PGA). 

 

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