Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: August 16th, 2021 | 0 Comments

AT LEAST TEN – The S&P 500 is up +20.0% YTD (total return) through the close of trading last Friday 8/13/21. The index has produced a “double-digit” total return gain in 7 of the last 10 years (2011-2020). The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

LAWMAKERS – Senate Democrats introduced a 92-page budget blueprint on 8/09/21, the first step in its plan to pass a $3.5 trillion “human infrastructure” bill that would likely need to use the “reconciliation” process in order to pass. If successful, the bill would not require any support from the 50 Republicans in the Senate. By rules of the Senate, only bills that change “spending or revenues” can use the “reconciliation” option. Democrats used “reconciliation” to pass the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan Act” (HR # 1319) on 3/11/21 (source: Congress).

UNDER THE PILLOW – From 1/01/20 (before the pandemic) to 5/27/20, the size of the money market fund industry in the USA (both taxable and tax-free) had grown from $3.6 trillion to $4.8 trillion. From 5/27/20 to last Wednesday 8/11/21, the size of the money market fund industry had declined $278 billion from $4.8 trillion to $4.5 trillion (source: Investment Company Institute).

A LOT OF HELP WANTED – American employers had 10.1 million job openings as of 6/30/21, an all-time record for an employment statistic that has been tracked by our government since December 2000. Domestic employers had 6.9 million job openings as of 2/29/20 at the beginning of the global pandemic (source: Department of Labor).

WILL IT BE ABOVE AVERAGE? – The average change that American homeowners are anticipating in the value of their primary residences over the upcoming 12-months is a gain of +5.1%, more than the actual gain of +4.1% per year that has been achieved over the last 20-years through 4/30/21 (source: July 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey, Federal Housing Finance Agency).

EXPENSIVE STATES – The top 3 US states for “total debt balance per capita,” i.e., per person, as of 6/30/21 were California, New Jersey and Arizona (source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel).

WORLD’S BIGGEST – The size of the US economy was $22.7 trillion as of 6/30/21. 10 years ago (6/30/11), the size of the US economy was $15.6 trillion. 20 years ago (6/30/01), the size of the US economy was $10.6 trillion. 30 years ago (6/30/91), the size of the US economy was $6.1 trillion (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis).

OPTIONS? – 39% of US small businesses say they experienced domestic supplier disruptions during July 2021, impacting their ability to provide goods and services to their customers (source: Census Bureau).

DID SHE CHANGE HER MIND? – On 10/30/18, Janet Yellen said the rising national debt was “unsustainable” and that “if I had a magic wand, I would raise taxes and cut retirement spending.” On 10/30/18, our national debt was $21.7 trillion, and Yellen was 9 months removed from the end of her 4-year stint as the chair of the Federal Reserve. The national debt has now reached $28.5 trillion as of last week. As of Monday 1/25/21, Yellen became our nation’s Treasury Secretary (source: 2018 Charles Schwab Impact Conference).

CALM BEFORE THE STORM? – Banks repossessed 230,305 homes in calendar year 2018. Banks repossessed 143,955 homes in calendar year 2019. Banks repossessed 50,238 homes in calendar year 2020. Through 7/31/21, banks had repossessed just 12,148 homes YTD (source: Attom Data Solutions).

MOVE HERE – 44 US cities are currently offering cash incentives to attract workers to move to their cities, including Augusta, ME ($15,660), Stillwater, OK ($7,500) and French Lick, IN ($5,000) (source: MakeMyMove.com).

AT THE PUMP – The national average price of gasoline was $3.19 a gallon as of 8/13/21, up from $2.25 as of 12/31/20. The last year that ended with gas at $3 a gallon or above was 2013 or 8 years ago (source: AAA).

MOST SUSCEPTIBLE – As of 8/11/21, 79% of American COVID-19 deaths occurred to individuals at least age 65, while less than 2% of the victims were under the age of 40 (source: CDC).

ON FIRE – 6 of the 7 largest wildfires in the history of California have occurred since August 2020, including the ongoing Dixie Fire which began in July 2021. The Dixie Fire is already the 2nd largest in the state’s history, having burned more than 510,000 acres (source: Cal Fire).

ONE DAY – New York Met baseball player Pete Alonso won $1 million for winning the 2021 Home Run Derby on 7/12/21 in Denver. Alonso will earn $676,775 playing for the Mets for the 2021 regular season (source: MLB).