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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: July 26th, 2021 | 0 Comments

  1. TIME IN THE STOCK MARKET – If you selected any single month at random to invest in the S&P 500 during the 30-years ending 6/30/21, you achieved a positive total return 67% of the time. If you extend your investment time horizon to just 1 year, you achieved a positive total return 83% of the time.  If your time horizon was 5 years, you achieved a positive total return 84% of the time.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  1. NEXT MONTH – August has been the 2nd worst performing month for the S&P 500 index over the last 30 years (1991-2020), losing an average of 0.2% (total return) over the period. However, the S&P 500 gained +7.2% (total return) in August 2020 (source: BTN Research).
  1. THEY HAD TO BE SURE – The government announced on Monday 7/19/21 that the recession the United States entered into at the end of February 2020 lasted just 2 months, ending on 4/30/20. The recession, the 18th in the country in the last 100 years, was the shortest recession in the last century.  The other 17 recessions in the last 100 years lasted on average 13.6 months (source: Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research).
  1. WHERE THE WEALTH IS – The amount of equity American seniors at least age 62 have in their homes has doubled since the end of 2011, rising from $4 trillion as of 12/31/11 to $8 trillion as of 12/31/20 (source: National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association).
  1. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOW RATES – 27% of households with an outstanding mortgage on their primary residence have applied to refinance their mortgage within the last year as of June 2021 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
  1. NOT AS MANY ON THE MARKET – There were 1.25 million existing homes for sale nationwide in June 2021, 1.54 million existing homes for sale in June 2020 and 1.92 million existing homes for sale in June 2019 (source: National Association of Realtors).
  1. CHEAPER NOW – The median 2-bedroom apartment in San Francisco cost $3,146 per month in March 2020, but has dropped 14% to $2,695 per month as of July 2021 (source: apartmentlist.com).
  1. JUNKY STUFF – The “investment grade” corporate bond market is more than 5 times as large as the “junk-rated” corporate bond market, i.e., $6.7 trillion of “investment grade” corporate bonds outstanding compared to $1.2 trillion of “junk-rated” corporate bonds (source: Ice Data Services).
  1. STRONG BANKS – As of 7/22/21, the last bank in the United States to require a bailout from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was the Almena State Bank of Almena, KS on 10/23/20 or 9 months ago. That’s the 3rd longest stretch without a bank failure in the country in the last 20 years (source: FDIC).
  1. JUST TAKE UBER – The price of used cars and trucks in the United States is up +45.2% for the 1-year period ending 6/30/21. Over the same period, the price of “medical care services” is up just +1.0% (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
  1. THE HIGH COST OF CARE – 12% of US retirees, i.e., 1 out of 8, will spend at least 4 years in a nursing home (source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College).
  1. HAPPENED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED – Between March 2020 (i.e., the beginning of the global pandemic) and June 2021, 1.7 million more Americans retired from the workforce than would have normally retired if historical trends had continued (source: Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis).
  1. DOWN, BUT STILL A LONG LIFE – Life expectancy at birth dropped to 77.3 years in 2020, down from 78.8 years in 2019. Life expectancy at birth was 77.4 years in 2005 (source: National Vital Statistics Report).
  1. IDENTIFY THIEVES – 394,000 Americans filed an identity theft report with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in 2020. According to the FTC, the criminals were using the stolen information “overwhelming” to “fraudulently obtain unemployment benefits” (source: IdentifyTheft.gov/unemploymentinsurance).
  1. REALLY GOOD GOLFER – When Collin Morikawa won the British Open golf tournament on 7/18/21, he became the 1st golfer in history to win 2 different golf majors in his debut effort. Morikawa won the PGA Championship in San Francisco in August 2020.  Morikawa made the cut in his first 22 professional tournaments (source: PGA).

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