Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: July 12th, 2021 | 0 Comments

LOOK-BACK – As of 6/30/21, the total return of the S&P 500 was +40.8% for the trailing 1-year, +18.7% per year for the last 3-years, +17.6% per year for the last 5-years and +14.8% per year for the last 10 years. The S&P 500 consists of stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

LOUSY YEARS HAPPEN – The S&P 500 has reported a negative trailing 12-month total return result at the end of 58 months in the last 30 years, i.e., 58 months out of 360 months or 16% of the time. The last time the stock index lost money on a trailing 1-year basis was at the end of March 2020 when the S&P 500 was down 7.0% over the previous 12 months (source: BTN Research).

TAXING AND SPENDING – The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasted on Thursday 7/01/21 that during fiscal year 2021, i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/21, the US government will receive $3.8 trillion of tax revenue, spend $6.8 trillion, resulting in a $3.0 trillion fiscal year deficit. During the next 10 fiscal years, i.e., fiscal year 2022 through and including fiscal year 2031, the US government is projected to receive $51.3 trillion of tax revenue, spend $63.4 trillion, resulting in a $12.1 trillion deficit over the next decade (source: CBO).

JOB SITUATION IN THE USA – As of February 2020 (pre-pandemic), 158.7 million Americans had full-time jobs, 5.7 million Americans were jobless, and the nation had a 3.5% unemployment rate. As of June 2021 (the most recent jobs data that is available), 151.6 million Americans had full-time jobs, 9.5 million Americans were jobless, and the nation had a 5.9% unemployment rate (source: Department of Labor).

THEY MUST NOT BE TOO WORRIED – 3.99 million Americans quit their jobs in April 2021, the largest monthly “quit level” recorded in US history (source: Department of Labor).

READY FOR A CHANGE – 24% of 2,000 American workers surveyed in late May 2021 are planning on looking for a new job in the post-pandemic world (source: Prudential’s Pulse of the American Worker Survey).

TO THE HEIRS OR TO CHARITY? – 26% of the $137 trillion net worth held by Americans as of 3/31/21 is owned by US citizens at least age 70, i.e., $35 trillion (source: Federal Reserve).

MARGIN DEBT – The use of margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) increased to $862 billion in May 2021, the 7th consecutive month setting an all-time high (source: Financial Industry Regulatory Authority).

THE RIGHT DIRECTION – The rating agency Moody’s upgraded the general obligation bonds issued by the state of Illinois on Tuesday 6/29/21. Moody’s raised the state’s rating from Baa3 to Baa2, the first upgrade issued by the rating agency for Illinois since June 1998 or 23 years ago. Baa3 is the lowest “investment grade” status issued by Moody’s, just 1 rating above “junk” status (source: Moody’s).

NOT JUST KIDS – 19% of Americans that have outstanding student loan debt from college are over age 50, i.e., 8.7 million borrowers out of 44.7 million total borrowers (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

SURPRISE MEDICAL BILL – 18% of Americans with health insurance coverage through their employers who are rushed to a hospital emergency room end up incurring at least one “out-of-network” charge (source: Peterson Center on Healthcare).

AN AGING GROUP – 2 out of every 5 physicians (40%) in the United States today will be at least age 65 within the next 10 years (source: The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections form 2019-2034).

IT’S DIFFERENT – The Federal Reserve measures inflation using the “Personal Consumption Expenditures” (PCE) price index while the government uses the “Consumer Price Index” (CPI) for the “cost of living adjustment” (COLA) to increase Social Security retirement benefits. The CPI gives “housing” prices a 42.1% weighting in its calculation, while the PCE gives “housing” just a 22.6% weighting. The CPI gives “medical care” prices an 8.8% weighting in its calculation, while the PCE gives “medical care” a 22.3% weighting (source: Federal Reserve).

THAT WOULD BE NICE – Social Security retirement benefits are projected to increase +5.3% in 2022, a “cost of living adjustment” (COLA) that would be its largest since 2009. The actual COLA bump will be announced in October 2021 by the Social Security Administration (source: Mary Johnson, The Senior Citizens League).

OLD GUY – American marathon runner Abdi Abdirahman will become the oldest man or woman (at age 44) ever to represent the USA in the Olympics as a competitor in any running event when he races in Japan on 8/08/21. Abdirahman competed in his first Olympics 21 years ago (in 2000) at the Sydney Games (source: USA Olympics).