Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: June 14th, 2021 | 0 Comments

WILD RIDE – After peaking on 3/24/00, the S&P 500 index fell 47%, then gained +121%, then lost 55%, then gained +529%, then lost 34%, and finally has gained +94% through the close of trading as of last Friday 6/11/21. An investor who rode out all 3 “bear/bull” cycles since 3/24/00 would have gained an annualized +7.0% per year over the entire 21+ years (total return) in spite of initially investing at an all-time high on 3/24/00. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

BONDS AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES – The worst year for the taxable bond market in the last 45 years (1976-2020) was a loss of 2.92% (total return) in 1994. The YTD performance (through last Thursday 6/10/21) of the taxable bond market is a loss of 1.65% (total return). The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (created in 1986 with backdated history calculated to 1976), calculated using publicly traded investment grade government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage-related bonds with at least 1 year until final maturity, was used as the bond measurement (source: Bloomberg Barclays).

BORROWING TRILLIONS – From 3/13/20, the date of President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency due to the pandemic, through last Thursday 6/10/21, our country’s national debt has increased by $4.8 trillion in 15 months, rising from $23.4 trillion to $28.2 trillion (source: Treasury Department).

BIG INFLATION – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up +5.0% on a trailing 12-month basis as of 5/31/21. Year-over-year inflation was less than +5.0% at the end of 99% of months in the last 30 years, i.e., 357 of 360 months (source: Department of Labor).

GUESS WHY? – Births exceeded deaths in the United States by 893,000 in 2019. Deaths exceeded births in the United States by 227,000 in 2020 (source: National Center for Health Statistics).

TEN THOUSAND MORE PER WEEK – Over a half million more Americans (518,000) died in 2020 than in 2019, i.e., 3.373 million in 2020 compared to 2.855 million in 2019 (source: National Center for Health Statistics).

HEADING OUT OF TOWN – Between 7/01/19 and 6/30/20, 5 of the 10 largest cities in the United States saw their populations decline – New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia and San Jose (source: Census Bureau).

HELP WANTED – The number of job openings in the USA climbed to 9.3 million at the end of April 2021, the highest number ever recorded and up +1.0 million in just the last month. By comparison, at the depths of the mortgage crisis, there were 2.1 million job openings available in July 2009 (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

JOINTS FOR JABS – Between 6/07/21 and 7/12/21, adults at least age 21 in the state of Washington will receive 1 marijuana joint if they receive a COVID-19 vaccination shot (source: Washington Liquor and Cannabis Board).

DON’T FORGET – State laws require financial institutions to report “abandoned and unclaimed” personal property (e.g., pre-tax retirement account) to the state where the account is domiciled, typically 3-5 years after the account is deemed to be “unclaimed” (source: Uniform Unclaimed Property Act).

THAT’S NOT HOW IT WORKS – If the total net worth of all Americans ($136.9 trillion as of 3/31/21) was evenly divided among all households in the nation (125.9 million households as of 3/31/21), then every household in the United States would have been worth $1.1 million as of 3/31/21 (source: Federal Reserve).

MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED – 29 of 49 states (no data was available from Wyoming) collected more in state tax revenue over the “pandemic-impacted” 12 months of 3/01/20 to 2/28/21 than they collected over the “pre-pandemic” 12 months of 3/01/19 to 2/29/20 (source: The PEW Charitable Trusts).

SPEND – Americans imported $278 billion of foreign goods and services in March 2021 and followed up with $274 billion of imports in April 2021, the 2 highest import months in US history (source: Bureau of Econ. Analysis).

DOWN ON THE FARM – US farmers are forecasted to export $164 billion of agricultural products in fiscal year 2021, i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/21. The record-setting total includes corn, soybeans, livestock and poultry. US agricultural imports, forecasted to be $142 billion, would also set an all-time record total. Imports include livestock, sugar and tropical fruits (source: Department of Agriculture).

GOAT – Gymnast Simone Biles won her 1st senior US women’s all-around title on 8/17/13 at age 16 with a score of 120.450. Biles won her 7th senior US women’s all-around title on 6/06/21 at age 24 with a score of 119.65. The 7 titles are the most by any American female gymnast in history (source: USA Gymnastics).