Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: April 19th, 2021 | 0 Comments

DOUBLE DIGITS – The S&P 500 is up +11.9% YTD (total return) through the close of trading last Friday 4/16/21, the completion of the first 15 weeks of calendar year 2021. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

ONE STOCK INDEX vs. ANOTHER – The NASDAQ Composite stock index has outperformed the S&P 500 in each of the last 4 calendar years, i.e., 2017-2020. Over the 4 years, the NASDAQ Composite has gained +150% (total return) while the S&P 500 has gained +81% (total return). The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: BTN Research).

GROWING DEMAND, LAGGING SUPPLY – Inflation, as measured by the “Consumer Price Index (CPI),” was up +0.62% in March 2021, the highest monthly rate recorded in the United States since June 2009 (almost 12 years ago). There have been just 6 months in the last 30 years (360 months) when monthly US inflation has been greater than +0.62% (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

THE PANDEMIC – The mortality rate in the USA was 1.03% in 2020, the highest mortality rate in our country in 77 years. The nation’s mortality rate peaked at 1.07% in 1943. As recently as 2009, our mortality rate was 0.79%, the lowest rate nationwide since 1912 (source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

DO YOU HAVE ANY PEANUTS? – 1.49 million travelers went through TSA screening at US airports last Thursday 4/15/21, up from just 95,085 screened passengers on 4/15/20 but still down from 2.62 million screened passengers on 4/15/19 (source: Transportation Security Administration).

MONEY IN, A LOT MORE OUT – Halfway through fiscal year 2021, i.e., the 6 months ending 3/31/21, the US government has taken in $1.7 trillion of receipts (i.e., taxes), paid out $3.4 trillion of outlays (i.e., spending), resulting in a 2021 fiscal year deficit to date of $1.7 trillion with still 6 months to go in the fiscal year. Last year’s fiscal year 2020 budget deficit of $3.1 trillion is our nation’s all-time record (source: Treasury Department).

IMPACT OF TAX INCREASES – An increase in the top corporate marginal tax rate from 21% to 28% and an increase in the top individual marginal tax rate from 37% to 39.6% would result in a loss of 1 million US jobs in 2022-2023 according to a study released on Thursday 4/08/21 (source: National Association of Manufacturers).

NEED A CHARGE? – The “American Jobs Plan,” a $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal by the Biden White House on 3/31/21, includes $174 billion (8% of the total plan) to be invested in the domestic electric vehicle market. Funds would be used to build and maintain 500,000 charging stations nationwide (source: Biden White House).

FORTY YEARS AGO – The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage as of 10/09/81 was 18.63%, the highest national average recorded in US history. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week (as of Thursday 4/15/21) was 3.04% (source: Freddie Mac).

THIRTYSOMETHING – The average age of a “first-time” US homebuyer in 2020 was 36.1 years old (source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel).

YOUR HOME – The average property taxes paid in 2020 on a single-family home in the USA was $3,719, equal to 1.1% of the fair market value of the average home nationwide. The most expensive property tax states are New Jersey (2.20% effective property tax rate), Illinois (2.18% effective rate) and Texas (2.15% effective rate). An average single-family home in New Jersey paid $9,196 in property taxes in 2020 (source: Attom Data Solutions).

SCANDAL – An article questioning Bernie Madoff’s investment strategy (titled “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”) appeared in print on 5/07/01, 7 ½ years before his Ponzi scheme was discovered. When asked about the investment policy approach that he utilized, Madoff replied “it’s a proprietary strategy and I can’t go into it in great detail.” Madoff died in prison last week (on 4/14/21) at age 82. His prison sentence began on 7/14/09 (source: Barron’s).

SKINNY THIN – Computer chips, critical to the processing capabilities of today’s computers, include copper foils that are 50 times thinner than a strand of human hair (source: Financial Times).

ARTIFICIALLY LOW – Personal bankruptcies in the United States in 2020, i.e., nonbusiness bankruptcies, totaled 522,808, down 66% from 1,536,799 personal bankruptcy filings in 2010 (source: United States Courts).

TOP PICK – The 3-day NFL Draft will begin on Thursday 4/29/21. Last year’s # 1 pick (Joe Burrow) signed a guaranteed contract for $36.2 million over 4 years, including $24.5 million paid in the first year (source: NFL).