Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: April 12th, 2021 | 0 Comments

STOCKS – The S&P 500 is up +10.4% YTD (total return) through the close of trading last Friday 4/09/21. The index has set 20 record closing highs this year, most recently on Friday 4/09/21. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

HARD TO CATCH UP – A 30-year old who is investing $500 at the beginning of every month in a tax-deferred 401(k) will accumulate $588,032 by age 60 if the funds grow at +7% per year. If that individual was forced to suspend his/her monthly deferral for just 5 years from ages 35-39, he/she would have to earn +8.8% per year from ages 40-60 to accumulate $588,032 by age 60. This mathematical calculation ignores the impact of taxes on the account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment. Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: BTN Research).

CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR – The last major tax reform in the United States was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on 8/10/93. 15 months later in the 1994 midterm elections held on 11/08/94, the House flipped from a Democratic majority of 258-176 to a Republican majority of 230-204, while the Senate flipped from a Democratic majority of 57-43 to a Republican majority of 52-48 (source: Congress).

LARGEST PORTS – The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, located just 3 miles apart on the West Coast, are the 2 busiest American ports as measured by total container trade (source: iContainers.com).

CLOSE THE DOOR? – 32% of Americans surveyed believe that foreign imports shipped into the United States represent a “threat” to the US economy (source: Gallup’s 2021 World Affairs survey, February 2021).

HOME BUILDING – 991,000 single-family homes began construction in 2020, the 9th year of increasing home starts since this measurement bottomed at 431,000 in 2011. The all-time US record for home starts in a single year is 1.72 million in 2005 (source: Census Bureau).

BEFORE RATES RISE – In a report released on Monday 4/05/21, an estimated 1 out of every 8 homeowners (12.2%) with a mortgage had refinanced their loan to a lower interest rate in just the previous 6 months (source: Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey).

IT’S GOING HIGHER – 205 of 220 money managers (93%) expect inflation to rise over the next year. The study, released on Tuesday 3/16/21, surveyed fund managers who collectively manage $630 billion of assets or approximately $3 billion per manager. Inflation, using the CPI as the measurement, was up +1.7% on a year-over-year basis through 2/28/21 (source: Bank of America).

SO HE SAYS – President Joe Biden predicts his “American Jobs Plan,” released on Wednesday 3/31/21, would create 19 million working class jobs in the USA if enacted as designed (source: Biden White House).

NO COMMUTE – 3 out of every 4 American families (73%) reporting household income of at least $200,000 switched to a “work-from-home” structure when the pandemic began in 2020 (source: Census Bureau).

COMPASSIONATE FOLKS – 1 out of every 7 American workers (14%) is employed in the health care industry, a total of 22 million individuals (source: Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey).

THE FLU – “Flu season” is defined as the 8 months from October-May. An average of 36,000 Americans died of flu per year over the last decade, but just 22,000 deaths occurred during the 2019-2020 season (source: CDC).

IS THERE AN EXECUTIVE ACTION COMING? – Any student loan debt that is forgiven after 12/31/20 and before 12/31/25 will not create “taxable income” for the borrower. This tax provision was part of HR # 1319 (aka the “American Rescue Plan Act”) that was signed into law by President Joe Biden on 3/11/21. However the pandemic-relief legislation did not include language implementing any student loan forgiveness Please consult a tax expert for details (source: HR # 1319, Section # 9675).

WE SHOULD TOO – The UK’s “State Pension,” analogous to the USA’s Social Security, has been increasing the age at which a UK citizen can claim the benefit from age 65 in November 2018 to 67 by 2028 (source: ageuk.org).

A (BIG) BUSINESS – Oral arguments were heard on 3/31/21 before the Supreme Court in “National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston.” A lower court ruling in favor of collegiate athlete Shawne Alston would allow for compensation to be paid to student-athletes, a ruling that the NCAA then appealed to the Supreme Court. College sports generated an estimated $14 billion in revenue in 2020 (source: Supreme Court).