Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: March 29th, 2021 | 0 Comments

YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS – With just 3 trading days remaining in the 1st quarter 2021, the S&P 500 stock index is up +6.2% YTD (total return) through the close of trading as of last Friday 3/26/21. The index, created in 1957, has achieved 15 record closing highs this year, including its latest on 3/26/21. The S&P 500 consists of stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

BAD QUARTER – The worst year for the taxable bond market in the last 45 years (1976-2020) was a loss of 2.92% (total return) in 1994. The YTD performance (through last Thursday 3/25/21) of the taxable bond market was a loss of 3.13% (total return). The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (created in 1986 with backdated history calculated to 1976), calculated using publicly traded investment grade government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage-related bonds with at least 1 year until final maturity, was used as the bond measurement (source: Bloomberg Barclays).

BONDS – The US bond market (including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt) was worth $49.9 trillion as of 12/31/20. Treasury debt ($21.0 trillion) makes up the largest piece of the US bond market (source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association).

STOCKS – The US stock market, including 3,463 public-traded companies on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, was worth $41.2 trillion as of 12/31/20 (source: Wilshire).

STATUS QUO FOR TWO MORE YEARS – The most recent meeting of the Fed ended on 3/17/21 with their interest rate forecast calling for no interest rate hikes by the Fed until at least 2023 (source: Federal Reserve).

HAVE KIDS, GET MONEY – An estimated 40% of the 126 million households in the United States have children under the age of 18, or 50 million households. An estimated 90% of the 50 million households (45 million) will qualify for the expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) per the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. The new CTC could pay $300 per month per child under age 6 and $250 per month per child between ages 6-17 beginning 7/01/21. Please consult a tax expert for details (source: Tax Policy Center).

THEY’LL SPEND IT SOMEWHERE – American consumers spent $2.81 trillion on foreign imports of goods and services in calendar year 2020. American consumers are forecasted to receive $800 billion in the form of stimulus payments, unemployment benefits and child tax credits through the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, and then turn around and spend $360 billion of the $800 billion on foreign imports. Chinese companies are predicted to sell Americans $60 billion of the $360 billion (source: Allianz).

TWO SUPERPOWERS – The United States and China makes up 40% of the world’s gross domestic product (source: Barclays Investment Bank).

HIS PROMISE – President Joe Biden said on Wednesday 3/17/21 that “anybody making more than $400,000 will see small-to-a-significant tax increase.” Biden wants the changes to be effective 1/01/22. US presidents are paid $400,000 per year (source: ABC’s Good Morning America).

TRIPLE DIGITS – The price of oil – $60.97 a barrel as of the close of trading last Friday 3/26/21 – last closed above $100 a barrel on 7/30/14, or nearly 7 years ago (source: NYMEX).

WOMEN RULE – The 17.8 million college students who enrolled in the fall of 2020 were split 41% male and 59% female. 17.8 million students are down just 2.5% from the 18.2 million students who enrolled in the fall of 2019 (source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center).

WE DID IT BEFORE – The Works Progress Administration (WPA) was created by President Franklin Roosevelt in 1935 during the Great Depression. During its 8 years, the WPA provided employment and wages for an estimated 40% of jobless Americans. The WPA built schools, hospitals and bridges (source: History.com).

INFRASTRUCTURE – American roads and bridges will require an estimated $2.8 trillion of repairs and upgrades over the 10 years from 2020-2029 (source: The American Society of Civil Engineers).

NO TEST SCORE NEEDED – Students applying to Ivy League school Cornell University for the 2022-2023 school year do not have to include ACT or SAT test scores with their applications (source: Cornell University).

FOOTBALL – The NFL announced on Thursday 3/18/21 an 11-year media deal worth $113 billion for the seasons 2023-2033. That’s equal to $321 million per team per year over the duration of the agreement (source: NFL).