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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: February 22nd, 2021 | 0 Comments

  1. BULL RUN – In the nearly 11 months since bottoming on 3/23/20, the S&P 500 has gained +77.4% (total return) through last Friday 2/19/21. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market (source: BTN Research).
  1. LUCKY – A person with $1 million invested 100% in the S&P 500 as of 1/01/73 withdrawing an inflation-adjusted $100,000 per year would be out of money in 9 years, i.e., as of 12/31/81. A 2nd person with $1 million invested in the S&P 500 as of 1/01/82 withdrawing an inflation-adjusted $100,000 per year would have $6.32 million remaining after 39 years, i.e., as of 12/31/20.  This calculation ignores the ultimate impact of taxes on the account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment or performance.  Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: BTN Research).
  1. BAD DAY, BAD YEAR – The worst year for the taxable bond market in the last 30 years (1991-2020) was a loss of 2.92% (total return) in 1994. The stock market, using the S&P 500 as a measurement, has had 105 trading days in the last 30 years that resulted in a loss of at least 2.92% (total return).  The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (created in 1986 with backdated history calculated to 1976), calculated using publicly traded investment grade government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage-related bonds with at least 1 year until final maturity, was used as the bond measurement (source: Bloomberg Barclays).
  1. MORE OUT THAN IN – The 4 largest monthly budget deficits in US history occurred in 2020. The 4 months were June 2020 ($864 billion deficit), April 2020 ($738 billion deficit), May 2020 ($399 billion deficit) and February 2020 ($235 billion deficit).  The last month to run a surplus was in September 2019 (source: Treasury Department).
  1. START RIGHT AWAY – A child born in February 1999 (22 years ago) who started college in the fall of 2017 is scheduled to graduate from an average 4-year public in-state college in May 2021. If the child’s parents had invested $146 per month beginning at the child’s 1999 birth and had earned an annualized +8% on all invested dollars, the parents would have been able to pay for their child’s 4-year college expenses of tuition, fees, room and board (the 4-year cost was $86,320).  This calculation ignores the ultimate impact of taxes on the investment account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment or performance.  Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: College Board).
  1. TOP SHELF – To rank in the top 0.1% of US taxpayers in tax year 2018, i.e., the top 1 out of 1,000 taxpayers, required an adjusted gross income of $2,514,209 (source: Internal Revenue Service).
  1. PEOPLE – The US population reached 200 million in 1967, 300 million in 2006 (39 years later) and was projected in February 2020 to reach 400 million in 2058. Our population today is 330 million (source: Census Bureau).
  1. NEW HOMES – The construction of 991,100 new single-family homes began in 2020, the 9th consecutive year of increasing home building in the US. In the decade of the 2010s, 6.8 million new homes began construction, down 44% from the 12.3 million new homes that started in the decade of the 2000s (source: Census Bureau).
  1. BY STATE – There are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors. The longest tenured governor nationwide is Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) who just began his 11th year in office (source: Ballotpedia.org).
  1. BY AGE – 81% of US pandemic deaths as of 2/19/21 were Americans at least age 65. 1% of US pandemic deaths as of 2/19/21 were Americans under age 35 (source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).
  1. BY MONTH – 195,000 Americans died in October 1918 during the worldwide flu outbreak, the deadliest month in our nation’s history. 95,000 Americans died from COVID-19 in January 2021, the worst month to date for pandemic-related deaths nationwide (source: Center for Disease Control).
  1. OUTLAYS – US consumer spending dropped 3% during calendar year 2020, a combination of spending on “goods” increasing +6% while spending on “services” fell 7% (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
  1. PUSHING THE LOCALS ASIDE – The “home buying budget” today in Austin, TX for home buyers from outside of the state of Texas is +32% higher than the “home buying budget” of local buyers (source: Redfin).
  1. PAY FOR IT LATERStudent loan debt in the United States was 90% larger than credit card debt nationwide as of 12/31/20, i.e., $1.56 trillion to $820 billion (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
  1. GOLF – Tiger Woods has earned $121 million in career earnings from playing golf on the PGA tour, but has earned $1.5 billion in his career from endorsements, appearances and course design work (source: Forbes).

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