Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: January 25th, 2021 | 0 Comments

FIRST QUARTER – Over the last 30 years (1991-2020), the S&P 500 has gained an average of +1.65% (total return) during the 1st quarter (January-February-March), a total that represents just 15% of the index’s 30-year average return of +10.70% per year. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

IS IT A BUBBLE? – The US stock market was worth $42.6 trillion as of the close of trading on 1/22/21, 2.0 times the size of our $21.2 trillion economy. At the peak of the dot-com stock bubble in March 2000, the US stock market was worth 1.4 times the size of the US economy (source: Fund Manager Julien Bittel).

RED AND BLUE PROBLEM – The national debt increased +86% during George W. Bush’s 8 years as president, reaching $10.63 trillion as of 1/20/09. The national debt increased +88% during Barack Obama’s 8 years as president, reaching $19.95 trillion as of 1/20/17. And finally, the national debt increased +39% during Donald Trump’s 4 years in the White House, reaching $27.75 trillion as of 1/20/21 (source: Treasury Department).

LAST FOUR YEARS – From 1/20/17 to 1/20/21, i.e., Donald Trump’s 4 years as President, the S&P 500 gained +83.3% (total return), an average of +16.4% per year. The S&P 500 set 151 record closing highs during the Trump administration, including one on President Trump’s last day as POTUS (source: BTN Research).

TIME FLIES – When Joe Biden was sworn in as a US Senator from the state of Delaware on 1/05/1973, he was the 5th youngest senator (age 30) in US history. When Joe Biden was sworn in as POTUS # 46 on 1/20/2021, he was the oldest president (age 78) to be inaugurated in US history (source: Politico.com).

NOT DONE YET – In 2008-2009, the Congress authorized spending of $983 billion to alleviate the impact of the global mortgage crisis, an amount equal to 6% of the size of the US economy. In 2020, the Congress authorized spending of $3.7 trillion to alleviate the impact of the global pandemic, an amount equal to 17% of the size of the US economy (source: BTN Research).

DID WE SHRINK DURING 2020? – The 1st of 3 estimates (spaced a month apart) of GDP growth/shrinkage for all of calendar year 2020 will be released on Thursday 1/28/21. Our nation’s GDP grew by +3.2% annually during the 1970s, by +3.1% annually during the 1980s, by +3.2% annually during the 1990s, by +1.9% annually during the 2000s, and finally by +2.3% annually during the 2010s (source: Department of Commerce).

PERKS OF THE JOB – All former living US presidents (Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump) receive a pension, an annual income of $221,400 (before-tax) in 2021. Former presidents also receive lifetime Secret Service protection (source: Former Presidents Act).

NOW WHAT DO I DO? – 82% of 2020 college graduates did not have a full-time job in place on the day they graduated last year (source: TotalJobs Group Ltd.).

GOING MY WAY? – The 3 most popular states to move into during 2020 were Tennessee, Texas and Florida. The 3 states with the greatest outflow of people during 2020 were California, Illinois and New Jersey. The rankings are based upon more than 2 million rentals of moving trucks last year that involved a “1-way” interstate movement of furnishings, personal possessions and clothing (source: U-Haul Migration Trends 2020).

I OWE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! – 37% of US homeowners do not have any outstanding debt on their primary residence, including no mortgage debt or any debt associated with a home equity loan (source: American Community Survey).

HOW CHEAP? – At the beginning of 2020, the all-time record low average interest rate nationwide for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.31% set on 11/22/12. A new record low average rate was established during 16 separate weeks in 2020, the last taking place on 12/24/20 at 2.66% (source: Freddie Mac).

ELBOW ROOM – First class and business class airline tickets generate 30% of the revenue of an average US airline that flies internationally (source: International Air Transport Association).

BIG CITIES, BIG FOOTPRINT – Just 25 cities in the United States create 52% of our nation’s GDP, including New York City (8.8% of the USA’s GDP), Los Angeles (5.4%) and Chicago (3.5%) (source: Statista).

TIME TO WORK ON THAT HANDICAP – Former President Donald Trump owns 19 golf courses, including 12 in the United States and 7 overseas (source: The U.S. Sun).