Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: December 7th, 2020 | 0 Comments

GOOD NEWS HAS HELPED – In the 22 trading days following the 11/03/20 election through last Friday 12/04/20, the S&P 500 has gained +10.0% (total return) and set 7 all-time record closings. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

THIRTY-YEARS – 2 of the 3 best months (by total return) for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years, i.e., the 360 months ending 11/30/20, occurred during the pandemic. April 2020 ranks # 1 (+12.82% gain) while November 2020 ranks # 3 (+10.95% gain). December 1991 (+11.44% gain) was the # 2 best month (source: BTN Research).

NOT A GREAT RETURN – An American male retiring at age 65 in 2020 who has earned the maximum taxable wage for Social Security taxes every year during his working career ($137,700 in 2020) is projected to have paid $741,000 (stated as a 2020 present value number) in lifetime Social Security taxes but is projected to receive just $533,000 (stated as a 2020 present value number) in lifetime benefits (source: Tax Policy Center).

I NEED MY SPACE – 28% of the households in the United States in 2020 were made up of just 1 individual living alone. Another 35% of US households are comprised of just 2 people, of which 65% (of the 35%) are a married couple (source: Census Bureau).

SMALL GUYS/GALS RULE – Small American businesses, defined as having less than 500 employees, are responsible for 44% of US economic activity (source: US Small Business Administration – Office of Advocacy).

NOT GOING TO THE MALL – $1 out of every $6 spent on US retail sales (16.1%) during the 2nd quarter 2020 was transacted online (source: Census Bureau).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND – On 4/09/20, OPEC and Russia agreed to a historic production cut of 10 million barrels a day. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil had fallen to $22.76 a barrel as of 4/09/20 as the global impact of COVID-19 was crushing the worldwide demand for oil. As of last Friday 12/04/20, WTI crude oil closed at $46.26 a barrel (source: NYMEX).

OVER A YEAR – The number of US operating oil rigs (both on land and offshore) was 323 as of Friday 12/04/20, down 60% from 799 operating oil rigs as of Friday 12/06/19 (source: Baker Hughes).

THEN AND NOW – Following the 2016 presidential election, the USA reported 5 million jobless Americans and a 4.7% unemployment rate as of 11/30/16. Following the 2020 presidential election, the United States reported 10.7 million jobless Americans and a 6.7% unemployment rate as of 11/30/20 (source: Department of Labor).

THE FRIENDLIER SKIES – 4,592,989 passengers went through TSA screening at US airports on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the Sunday after Thanksgiving, i.e., 11/25/20 through and including 11/29/20. Exactly 8 months earlier, i.e., Wednesday 3/25/20 through Sunday 3/29/20, just 1,006,765 passengers went through TSA screening at US airports (source: TSA).

START SAVING NOW – A child born in 2020 that begins kindergarten in the fall of 2025 would attend college between the years of 2038 and 2042. If that child attended an average public in-state 4-year college and if the annual price increases for public colleges that have occurred over the last 30 years (+5.0% per year) continued into the future, the aggregate 4-year cost of the child’s college education (including tuition, fees, room & board) would be $231,779 or $57,945 per year (source: College Board).

WAS PRIVATE, NOW PUBLIC – The cost of tuition, fees, room and board at an average public 4-year college for the current 2020-2021 school year is $22,180. The cost of tuition, fees, room and board at an average private 4-year college for the 2000-2001 school year, i.e., 20 years ago, was $22,240 (source: College Board).

EVERY DAY – An estimated 10,800 Americans will turn 65 years old each day next year (2021), i.e., 1 every 8 seconds. This group represents the 11th year of 19 years of “Baby Boomers” turning age 65. An estimated 11,500 Americans will turn 65 years old each day in the year 2029 (source: Government Accountability Office).

NOT A BOOMER – Bill Clinton, our nation’s # 42 president, left office in January 2001 or 20 years ago next month. Clinton, age 74, is 4 years younger than 78-year old Joe Biden, our nation’s # 46 president who will take office on 1/20/21 (source: BTN Research).

SIX GUYS BETTER THAN HIM? – LeBron James will be the 7th highest paid player in the NBA for the upcoming 2020-21 season, earning $39.21 million (source: ESPN).