Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: November 23rd, 2020 | 0 Comments

FREQUENTLY – Between the 11/08/16 presidential election and the 11/03/20 presidential election, the S&P 500 set 133 record closing highs over 1,003 trading days. That’s equal to a new record closing high occurring once every 1 ½ weeks. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

HISTORICALLY LOW – The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed last Friday 11/20/20 at 0.83%, its 170th consecutive trading day of closing below 1%, i.e., occurring every trading day since 3/19/20. The yield on the 10-year note dropped below 1% for the first time ever on 3/03/20. 10-year notes have been traded in the USA since 1790, i.e., 230 years of trading (source: Treasury Department).

USE TIME TO YOUR ADVANTAGE – $522 invested at the beginning of every month for 40 years earning 6% per year will accumulate to $1 million. $1,021 invested at the beginning of every month for 30 years earning 6% per year will accumulate to $1 million. The calculations ignore the impact of taxes and are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to reflect any specific investment alternative (source: BTN Research).

MOST ARE CURRENT – 1 in 13 home mortgages nationwide (7.65%) were at least 1 monthly payment delinquent as of 9/30/20. Just 1 in 25 home mortgages nationwide (3.97%) were at least 1 monthly payment delinquent as of 9/30/19 or a year earlier (source: Mortgage Bankers Association).

DURING A PANDEMIC – The median sales price of existing homes sold in the United States was $313,000 in October 2020, an all-time record both on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) and on an inflation-adjusted basis (source: National Association of Realtors).

HARDER TO FIND A JOB – As of 10/31/20, 3.56 million Americans have been unemployed at least 27 weeks (just over 6 months), 32% of the 11.06 million Americans who were jobless as of that date. As of 1/31/20 (before the pandemic), 1.17 million Americans had been unemployed at least 27 weeks, 20% of the 5.89 million Americans who were jobless at the end of January earlier this year (source: Department of Labor).

WHY GO? – 43% of “recent” college graduates with jobs (under the age of 28) surveyed in September 2020 are working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

RAISE TUITION OR CUT EXPENSES? – 30% of American colleges, including both public institutions and private schools, are running a deficit during their current fiscal year (source: Moody’s Investors Service).

PEOPLE ARE SPENDING AGAIN – Retail sales in the United States were down on a “month-over-month” basis for 3 consecutive months, i.e., February 2020 through April 2020) but have rebounded and have increased on a “month-over-month” basis for the last 6 months, i.e., May 2020 through October 2020 (source: Census Bureau).

JUST ONE MONTH – The budget deficit for the US government for the first month of fiscal year 2021, i.e., October 2020, was $284 billion. As recently as fiscal year 2007, the budget deficit for the entire fiscal year was $161 billion or a smaller deficit than October’s deficit (source: Treasury Department).

BLOCK THIS CALLER – Only 6% of people answer their landline or mobile phone when contacted by a firm conducting a telephone survey, compared to 36% in 1997 (source: Pew Research Center).

YOU HAVE TO WEAR A MASK – The updated ventilation technology used on commercial aircrafts in 2020, including the frequent exchange of air and “high efficiency particulate air” (HEPA) filters, removes from the airplane’s cabin over 99% of the airborne particles that could contain the virus that causes COVID-19 (source: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health).

THE REACH OF COVID – As of Friday 11/20/20, 3.6% of Americans have been infected with COVID-19, i.e., 11.8 million infected individuals out of our 330.6 million population, or 1 out of every 28 Americans (source: NBC News, Census Bureau).

LONG DIVORCE – The United Kingdom voted on 6/23/16 (52% to 48%) to leave the 28-nation European Union, i.e., the vote took place 4 ½ years ago. That decision will be fully implemented on 12/31/20 when the “transition period” ends as defined in the “withdrawal agreement” (source: BBC News).

SHE MAKES THE BIG CALLS – 52-year old Kim Ng was named on 11/13/20 as the general manager of MLB’s Miami Marlins. Ng is the first female GM in MLB’s 145-year history (source: MLB).