Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: November 16th, 2020 | 0 Comments

STOCKS AND THE WHITE HOUSE – Based upon performance data from 1936-2019, the S&P 500 has averaged +6.7% per year (total return) during the 1st year of a 4-year presidential term. Next year (2021) will be year # 1 of a 1st-term Biden administration. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

A RECORD CLOSE – 13 days after the 11/08/16 election, the S&P 500 set an all-time record closing high on 11/21/16. 10 days after the 11/03/20 election, the S&P 500 set an all-time record closing high on 11/13/20 (source: BTN Research).

MORE BONDS THAN STOCKS – As of 6/30/20, the US stock market was $33 trillion in size. As of 6/30/20, the US bond market was $50 trillion in size (source: Wilshire, SIFMA).

BULLS – 56% of investors surveyed as of 11/11/20 are “bullish” on US stocks for the upcoming 6 months, the highest percentage recorded in this weekly survey since 1/03/18 (source: Amer. Assoc. of Individual Investors).

WIND AT THEIR BACK – Every US president since 1993 – Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump – began his first year in the White House with total control of Congress, i.e., Presidents Clinton and Obama began with Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate, and Presidents Bush and Trump began with Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate (source: Congress).

DELAYED – The split in the Senate is 50-48 favoring the Republicans with the remaining 2 seats to be determined on 1/05/21 in 2 Georgia runoffs. Republicans are the incumbents in both races. In the event of a 50-50 split on any Senate vote, the Vice President would cast the tie-breaking vote on that legislation (source: Congress).

MANY CAN’T WAIT – An American worker may begin receiving a monthly Social Security retirement benefit as early as age 62, albeit at a reduced level from what is available at one’s “full retirement age.” Just under 50% of American “blue-collar” workers take their retirement benefits at age 62, while only 38% of “white-collar” workers begin their retirement benefits early (source: Center for Financial Security, December 2019).

POTUS – President-elect Joe Biden turns 78 years old on Friday 11/20/20. Biden was first elected to the Senate from Delaware in 1972 (just before he turned age 30), eventually serving 36 years in that role. Just 41 days after his 1972 Senate victory, his wife and infant daughter were killed in a car accident (source: CBS News).

VIRUS – President-elect Biden has proposed the creation of a Public Health Jobs Corps. The government agency would employ at least 100,000 Americans to perform roles in combating the COVID-19 virus (source: NBC News).

NOT COMING BACK – In the 6 months from 2/29/20 to 8/31/20, 163,735 US businesses have closed their doors, including 97,966 businesses (60%) that are likely closed for good (Source: Yelp Economic Average).

PRETTY GOOD – 95% of apartment households nationwide had paid their November rent as of 10/27/20 (source: National Multifamily Housing Council Rent Payment Tracker).

CALM BEFORE THE STORM? – 46,570 homes have been foreclosed on by lenders nationwide YTD through 10/31/20. That’s down from the 143,955 foreclosures in calendar year 2019 and 230,305 foreclosures in calendar year 2018 (source: Attom Data Solutions).

MORE FOR BIDEN – President-elect Biden was leading President Trump in the national popular vote in the race for the White House by 4 million votes as of 6pm ET on Friday 11/13/20, i.e., 78.1 million votes to 72.7 million votes. Biden was also leading in the California popular vote in the race for the White House by 4.9 million votes as of 6pm ET on Friday 11/13/20, i.e., 10.4 million votes to 5.5 million votes (source: New York Times).

WOULD YOU? – A joint venture between a US pharmaceutical company and a German biotech company has produced a COVID-19 vaccine that is believed to be 90% effective. That conclusion was based on a “phase 3” clinical trial that included 43,538 participants, of which just 94 individuals have developed the COVID-19 virus. The US government has a contract with the joint venture for 100 million doses of the vaccine when it’s ready, along with an option to purchase an additional 500 million doses. The vaccine is administered in 2 doses given 3 weeks apart. The US population of 331 million would require 662 million doses (source: Financial Times).

NO HELMET – 58 of 368 FBS college football games scheduled this season through 11/08/20 (16% of all games) were postponed or cancelled due to the COVID-19 virus (source: Associated Press, Ralph D. Russo).