Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: October 12th, 2020 | 0 Comments

WHAT A DAY! – 12 years ago tomorrow (on Monday 10/13/08), the single-best trading day for the S&P 500 in the last 70 years (since 1950) took place – a gain of +11.6% in just 1 trading day. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its value (source: BTN Research).

PEAK – The highest close for the S&P 500 so far this year (3581) was on 9/02/20. The highest close for the index has occurred in September or December in 7 of the last 8 years, i.e., 2012-2019 (source: BTN Research).

PREDICTING IS HARD – 3 years ago (9/20/17), the Federal Reserve released a forecast for the end of 2020 for its key short-term interest rate and for our country’s unemployment rate. Their predictions: The Fed funds rate would be 2.9% and our jobless rate would be 4.2%. The actual numbers as of today: The Fed funds rate is 0% to 0.25% and our jobless rate is 7.9% (source: Federal Reserve).

CAN’T SPEND WHAT WE DON’T HAVE – “Personal income” in the United States, i.e., all pre-tax income created from employment and investments, declined 2.7% on a month-over-month basis from July 2020 to August 2020, its 4th down month in the last 6 months. “Personal income” had declined on a month-over-month basis only 5 times in the previous decade, i.e., 5 times in the previous 120 months (source: Department of Commerce).

CUTOFFS FOR AGI – For tax year 2017, the latest tax year that the IRS has released data, 143,295,160 tax returns were filed. 98% of the 143.3 million returns reported adjusted gross income less than $339,478. 99% of the 143.3 million returns reported adjusted gross income less than $515,371 (source: Internal Revenue Service).

HEALTH INSURANCE – For workers that access their health insurance through an employer, the average annual cost for health insurance coverage for a family plan in 2020 is $20,514, with the employer paying 67% of the total ($13,717) and the employee paying 33% ($6,797) (source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics).

WANT TO LIVE FOREVER? – Healthcare spending per person in the USA in 2018 was +92% greater than the average health care spending per person in 9 major countries. US spending of $10,637 per person, including hospital care, prescription drugs, long-term care and preventative care, nearly doubled the $5,527 per person spending average compiled from Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK (source: OECD Health Statistics).

LESS FROM CHINA – The US imported $452 billion of goods from China in 2019. Through the first half of 2020, the US had imported $181 billion of goods from China (source: Department of Commerce).

PAY THE PIPER – The moratorium imposed by the state of New York on commercial foreclosures and evictions ends in 8 days on Tuesday 10/20/20. Tenants and borrowers may face financial obligations that may have been accumulating since March 2020 (source: Thomas P. DiNapoli, New York State Comptroller).

NO INFLATION – Inflation in the Eurozone fell 0.3% on a month-over-month basis in September 2020, after falling 2% in August 2020, i.e., deflation has taken place in the last 2 months. The Eurozone, which began in 1999, has never had an entire calendar year that experienced deflation. The last calendar year in which the US recorded deflation was 1954 (source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics).

CASHING IN – The median sales price of an existing home sold in the United States in August 2020 ($310,600) is the highest ever recorded and is up +11% in the last 12 months (source: National Association of Realtors).

INCLUDE A GREAT BIG HOME OFFICE – 273,100 single family homes began construction nationwide in the last 3 months (June-July-August), the largest trailing 3-month total since August 2007 (source: Census Bureau).

I’M LEAVING ON A (PRIVATE) JET PLANE – The California Legislature is debating a bill introduced on 7/27/20 that would retroactively (to January 2020) raise the state’s top marginal tax rate from 13.3% up to 14.3% at taxable income levels above $1 million, up to 16.3% on taxable income above $2 million and up to 16.8% on taxable income above $5 million. The tax increase would impact the estimated ½ of 1% of California taxpayers who currently pay 40% of the income tax revenue collected within the state (source: Assembly Bill 1253).

FAMILY MONEY – Jeff Bezos is ranked # 1 as the richest person in the world (worth $188 billion as of 10/08/20), but the 7 living heirs of Sam Walton (he died in 1992) are worth $239 billion (source: Forbes).

THEY GOT HOT – The Louis Cardinals beat the Detroit Tigers in the 2006 World Series but had the worst regular season record (83-78) for a World Series champion in baseball’s 145-year history (source: MLB).