Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: September 14th, 2020 | 0 Comments

ONE FOLLOWED THE OTHER – In the last 30 years, the best 12-month performance and the worst 12-month performance for the S&P 500 occurred over a single 24-month period. The worst 12-months (a total return loss of 43.3%) was the 1-year from 3/01/08 to 2/28/09 and the best 12-months (a total return gain of +53.6%) was the 1-year from 3/01/09 to 2/28/10. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

THE DAY THE WORLD CHANGED – The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on 3/11/20. In the 6 months from 3/11/20 through last Friday 9/11/20, the S&P 500 has gained +23.0% (total return) (source: BTN Research).

ALL THE STOCKS – The total stock market capitalization of US equities peaked at $36.1 trillion as of 2/19/20, fell to $23.4 trillion as of 3/23/20, and has bounced back to $35.6 trillion as of Friday 9/11/20 (source: Wilshire).

BUT THE LARGEST IS OURS – 3 of the 4 largest companies in the world are Chinese corporations. The rankings are based upon annual revenues. Each of the top 4 companies generate more than $1 billion a day in revenue (source: Fortune).

USUALLY – The bond market was up +6.9% YTD (total return) through the close of trading on 9/10/20. If the bond market produces a positive total return for 2020, it would be 20 of the last 21 years that bonds have been up. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate bond index, calculated using 6,000 publicly traded government and corporate bonds with an average maturity of 5 years, was used as the bond measurement (source: Bloomberg).

TREASURIES – The amount of outstanding Treasury debt issued by the United States has almost doubled in less than a decade, rising from $8.853 trillion on 12/31/10 to $17.154 trillion as of 3/31/20 (source: SIFMA).

FROM A RECORD HIGH – The US has tracked domestic oil production since January 1920, i.e., for 100 years. Domestic oil production first exceeded 10 million barrels a day on 2/02/18, rising to a record 1 million barrels a day on 3/13/20, the day President Trump declared a national pandemic emergency. Since then, domestic oil production as fallen steadily to 10.0 million barrels a day as of Friday 9/04/20 (source: Department of Energy).

FEWER CHOICES TO PICK FROM – There were 400,000 fewer existing homes for sale nationwide at the end of July 2020 (1.5 million) than there were at the end of July 2019 (1.9 million), a drop of 21% on a year-over-year basis (source: National Association of Realtors).

MOSTLY MORTGAGE DEBT – Total household debt in the United States was $14.27 trillion as of 6/30/20, down slightly from the all-time record of $14.30 trillion set as of 3/31/20. 69% of the $14.27 trillion household debt total ($9.78 trillion) is mortgage debt (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

NO INFLATION – Inflation in the Eurozone fell 0.2% on a month-over-month basis in August 2020, i.e., deflation. The last month of deflation in the Eurozone before August occurred in May 2016. The last calendar year in which the US experienced deflation was 1954 or 66 years ago (source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics).

READ ALL ABOUT IT – Jobs in the hardcopy publishing industry (i.e., newspapers, magazines, books, directories, mailing lists, calendars, greeting cards and maps) are projected to drop by 33% between 2019 and 2029, a forecasted loss of 99,200 jobs (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).

YOU WANT A DISCOUNT? – The schools with the 4 largest college endowments in the United States – Harvard, University of Texas, Yale and Stanford – increased the cost of tuition for their undergraduates for the 2020-21 school year (source: MarketWatch).

WHO KNEW? – The CDC estimated on 7/10/20 that 40% of Americans infected with the COVID-19 virus are asymptomatic, i.e., they never experienced symptoms commonly associated with the virus, including fever, chills, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue and body aches (source: Center for Disease Control).

SOME RELIEF – A maximum $2,500 of interest expense from student loans is deductible annually from taxable income. Please consult a tax expert for details (source: Internal Revenue Service).

NOT THEIR YEAR – The last 2 World Series champs – the Boston Red Sox (2018) and the Washington Nationals (2019) – have the 3rd worst record (the Red Sox were 16-29) and the 6th worst record (the Nationals were 16-26) in MLB out of all 30 teams as of games played through Thursday 9/10/20 (source: MLB).