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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: July 20th, 2020 | 0 Comments

1. DURING A SLOWDOWN – The USA was in an 18-month recession from the end of December 2007 through the end of June 2009, a 1 ½ year period in which the S&P 500 gained +13.3% (total return). The USA is now in another recession, this latest downturn beginning at the end of February 2020. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. YEAR-TO-DATE – The S&P 500 lost 30.43% (total return) for the first 56 trading days of 2020 through 3/23/20. Since then, the S&P 500 has gained +45.01% (total return) for the next 81 trading days through 7/17/20. The YTD result for the index is +0.88% (total return), i.e., (1 – 0.3043) x (1.4501) = 1.0088 (source: BTN Research).

3. LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR – The US government suffered an $864 billion budget deficit during June 2020, i.e., $241 billion of tax receipts vs. $1.1 trillion of outlays. The US government had a $984 billion budget deficit for the entire 2019 fiscal year, i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/19 (source: Treasury Department).

4. SPENDING DECLINES AS WE AGE – The average retired couple spends 23% less money in their 6th year of retirement compared to what they spent in their 1st year of retirement (source: Health and Retirement Survey).

5. SEEMS CRAZY – If a bond investment was offered at a negative interest rate of 0.5%, that means investors (the lenders) would be willing to pay the issuer of the bond (the borrower) a rate of 0.5% per year for the duration of the bond for the privilege of lending the borrower money (source: BTN Research).

6. BLAME IT ON COVID-19 – Crude oil production in the United States has fallen from 13.1 million barrels a day as of Friday 3/13/20 (the day President Trump declared a pandemic-driven national emergency) to 11.0 million barrels a day as of Friday 7/10/20 (source: Department of Energy).

7. THIS FALL – 57% of colleges anticipate they will offer “in-person” class instruction for the upcoming 2020-21 school year, just 9% will offer only online class instruction, while 29% of schools will provide a combination of “in-person” and online class instruction. The remaining 5% of schools have yet to decide as of Friday 7/10/20 (source: Chronicle of Higher Education).

8. ROTTEN THINGS HAPPEN – 46% of 1,500 US adults interviewed online during the first week of July 2020 are “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about losing their job (source: Economist/YouGov Poll).

9. WHO HAS A JOB? – The number of employees of the federal government has increased by 18,000 from the end of February 2020 to the end of June 2020, while the number of employees of local governments has declined by 1.2 million over the same 4-month period (source: Department of Labor).

10. END OF THIS WEEK – The extra $600 per week of federally funded unemployment benefits that was provided in the 3/27/20 CARES Act runs out as of Saturday 7/25/20 or Sunday 7/26/20, depending upon the state of residence of the out-of-work individual. State-funded jobless benefits continue for at least 30 weeks in 46 of the 50 US states (source: CARES Act).

11. IT CAN WAIT – An estimated 40% of American adults at least age 18 have delayed getting medical care over the previous month as of 7/15/20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. American adults make up 249 million of our 330 million population (source: Census Bureau).

12. CAN’T TOUCH ME – As of 7/09/20, an estimated 25% of the 5.4 million renters in New York City have not made a monthly rental payment since March 2020. A 3/27/20 federal moratorium prevents NYC landlords from evicting delinquent tenants or charging them late fees (source: Community Housing Improvement Program).

13. STATES WILL NEED HELP – From 3/13/20 (the date of President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency) to 6/30/20, the COVID-19 pandemic reduced state revenue across the country (e.g., state income tax and sales tax) by an estimated $75 billion. For the 2021 fiscal year that began on 7/01/20 for most states, the 50 US states will experience an additional revenue reduction of an estimated $125 billion (source: Tax Policy Center).

14. WE NEED JUST ONE – There are 197 vaccines for the COVID-19 pandemic currently in the development stage, none of which has yet to receive FDA approval (source: Milken Institute).

15. BRAD PAISLEY’S BUDDY – Former NFL quarterback Peyton Manning earned $3.4 million from advertisements and royalties for the 1-year ending 2/29/20, more than what any current or former NFL player earned over the same time period. Manning last played on 2/07/16 in Super Bowl # 50 (source: NFL Players’ Association).

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