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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: July 13th, 2020 | 0 Comments

1. LOOK-BACK – As of 6/30/20, the total return of the S&P 500 is +7.5% for the trailing 1-year, +10.7% per year for the last 3-years, +10.7% per year for the last 5-years and +14.0% per year for the last 10 years. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. TOUGH CROWD – Just 121 of the stocks in the S&P 500 were up YTD through 6/30/20. 153 stocks were down at least 25% YTD as of 6/30/20, including 33 stocks down at least 50% YTD (source: BTN Research).

3. WHERE DID THEY GO? – The number of publicly listed companies, i.e., companies traded on an exchange, has dropped from a peak of 8,090 in 1996 to just 4,397 today (source: theglobaleconomy.com).

4. YOUR HOME – 62% of first lien home mortgages are federally backed, i.e., the loans are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration or the Veterans Benefits Administration. The government announced on 6/17/20 that the moratorium on foreclosures and evictions on federally backed, single-family mortgages has been extended to 8/31/20. Borrowers who experience “financial hardship” due to the pandemic may extend the moratorium for an additional 6 months to 2/28/21 (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).

5. THE RICHEST – The top 1% of wage earners in the USA reported at least $515,371 of pre-tax income in 2017 and own an estimated 39% of the total wealth in the country (source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).

6. STILL DOWN BUT COMING BACK – As of the date that the CARES Act was signed into law by President Trump (3/27/20), total spending by American consumers was down 30.2% from total spending in the country in January 2020. As of 7/01/20, total spending by American consumers had rebounded and was down just 9% from total spending in January 2020 (source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker).

7. TAKE IT AND SPEND IT – The CARES Act authorized non-taxable distributions of $1,200 per individual and $500 per child (under the age of 17). 159 million electronic payments and checks totaling $267 billion were paid to income-eligible Americans (source: CARES Act).

8. NEED A LOAN? – The $349 billion of PPP loans (Paycheck Protection Program) to small businesses (less than 500 employees) from the CARES Act was all loaned out by 4/16/20, prompting Congress to authorize an additional $310 billion of PPP loans as of 4/24/20. As of 6/30/20, $130 billion of the $310 billion had yet to be loaned out. The deadline for applying for PPP loans is Saturday 8/08/20 (source: Congress).

9. DEATHS – The first American death from the COVID-19 pandemic occurred on 2/06/20. As of 9am ET on 7/06/20, i.e., 5 months later, 130,937 Americans had died from the pandemic. 93% of the American death total has occurred in the last 3 months, i.e., since 4/06/20 (source: NBC News, Meet the Press: First Read).

10. JUST IN CASE – 45% of Americans surveyed in May 2020 have living wills in place. Living wills document an individual’s “end of life” medical care wishes in case he/she loses the ability to communicate (source: Gallup).

11. OTHER PANDEMICS – Dating back to the 14th century, i.e., the 100 years that began 1/01/1301, there have been 15 pandemics where more than 100,000 people died, not counting the current COVID-19 pandemic. We are in the 21st century today, i.e., the 100 years that began 1/01/2001 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

12. HOW LONG? – 37% of 1,000 American voters interviewed during the last week of June 2020 anticipate that the US economy will “fully recover” within a year from now, i.e., 63% of those interviewed believe it will take at least another year for the US economy to come all the way back (source: FT-Peter G. Peterson Foundation).

13. HEAD SOUTH – The government divides the USA into 4 geographical areas: Northeast, South, Midwest and West. As of May 2020, the Northeast states had 972,000 job openings while the states in the South region had 2.070 million job openings. The total number of US job openings: 5.397 million (source: Department of Labor).

14. BIG RED NUMBERS – On 4/24/20, the CBO forecasted a budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/20, of $3.7 trillion or 18.1% of our $20.4 trillion economy. The “deficit dollar amount” record in the USA is $1.41 trillion from fiscal year 2009. The “deficit as a percentage of GDP” record in the USA is 29.6% from fiscal year 1943 (source: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget).

15. VERY LARGE HUMAN BEINGS – The average weight of a starting offensive lineman in the NFL in 1970, i.e., 50 years ago, was 254.3 lbs. The average weight of the projected starting offensive linemen in the NFL for the upcoming 2020 season is 315 lbs., or nearly 61 lbs. heavier (source: Elias Sports Bureau).

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