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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Lisa Navarro | Posted on: June 1st, 2020 | 0 Comments

1. THROUGH THE END OF MAY – The S&P 500 is down 5.0% YTD (total return) through 5/29/20. Just 121 stocks in the index are up YTD. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

2. TRILLIONS – From its 2/19/20 stock market high, US stocks lost $12.7 trillion in market capitalization through the stock market low close on 3/23/20. From its 3/23/20 low point, US stocks have gained $8.8 trillion in market capitalization through the close of trading last Friday 5/29/20 (source: Wilshire).

3. LOTS OF BORROWING – By the end of fiscal year 2020, i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/20, the US Treasury anticipates it will have issued $4.5 trillion in new debt, more than triple the $1.28 trillion of new debt issued in fiscal year 2019 (source: Treasury Department).

4. BACK UP OFF THE MAT – Since downgrading California’s general obligation credit rating in February 2009 and again in January 2010, the rating agency S&P has upgraded California’s credit rating 3 times – in January 2013, again in November 2014 and finally in July 2015 (source: California State Treasurer).

5. LET IT BE PERPETUAL – Existing home prices in the United States have risen for 35 consecutive quarters through the end of the 1st quarter 2020, i.e., from 6/30/11 through 3/31/20. Existing homes in Idaho, up +12.6% on average for the 12 months ending 3/31/20, have experienced the greatest year-over-year appreciation of any US state (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency).

6. WHEN IT STARTED – The first death in the United States from the COVID-19 virus occurred on Thursday 2/06/20 in Santa Clara County California or just under 4 months ago. As of last Friday, 5/29/20 9am ET, 102,041 Americans had died from the COVID-19 virus (source: NBC News Meet the Press – First Read).

7. SPENDING MORE – 45% of 1,008 adults surveyed in April 2020 say they have increased their monthly spending while quarantined due in part to costs related to groceries and streaming services (source: TD Ameritrade).

8. BY THE END OF THIS MONTH – Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans made under the 3/27/20 CARES Act allows for loan forgiveness, i.e., the loan becomes a grant, if an employer who had laid off employees between 2/15/20 to 4/26/20 is able to rehire his/her employees to 2/15/20 levels by 6/30/20. Please consult your PPP lender for details (source: CARES Act).

9. JUST BEFORE WE VOTED – The highest unemployment rate at the end of the month just prior to a presidential election in the United States was 7.8% as of 10/31/12. President Barack Obama won a 2nd term in office by defeating Mitt Romney in the 11/06/12 election. Note that monthly jobless data has been tracked in the United States since 1948 (source: Department of Labor).

10. THEN AND NOW – The USA’s last recession ran for 18 months from December 2007 to June 2009. During those 18 months, first-time jobless claims averaged 484,231 per week. In the last 10 weeks during the COVID-19 pandemic, first-time jobless claims have averaged 4.1 million per week, or more than 8 times the level that occurred during the nation’s mortgage crisis a dozen years ago (source: Department of Labor).

11. GET READY – Spending for ads related to the 2020 political races in the House, Senate and the White House are projected to reach a record $6.7 billion. 54% of the spending historically occurs in the final 10 weeks before election day, i.e., from the last week of August to the first Tuesday in November (source: Advertising Analytics).

12. OUCH! – Illinois contributed $600 million on behalf of the state’s 5 state pension systems for fiscal year 1996. 25 years later, Illinois’ pension contribution will be $9.7 billion for fiscal year 2021 (source: Illinois.gov).

13. NO HURRY TO RETIRE – 45% of American workers expect to work past age 65. 30 years ago, just 18% of American workers anticipated working past age 65 (source: Employee Benefit Research Institute 2019).

14. WHERE DO YOU LIVE? – 39% of the US population live in cities that have at least 50,000 people, but only 4% of US cities have a population of at least 50,000 (source: Census Bureau).

15. FOURTH AND LONG – The University of Nebraska football team has sold out their stadium for 375 consecutive home games, dating back to the # 1 sellout on 11/03/62. The football stadium, which holds 85,458 fans, brought in $30 million in ticket sales in 2019. If forced to reduce attendance to 20,000 per game for the 2020 season due to the pandemic, the club will lose $23 million in ticket revenue this year (source: Omaha World Herald).

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