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Bill’s By The Number$

Posted by: Vanessa Guadiana | Posted on: June 30th, 2014 | 0 Comments

  1. PRETTY GOOD – With just 1 trading day remaining in the 1st half of 2014, the S&P 500 is up +7.2% YTD (total return), has set 22 all-time closing highs and has a 59/41 split between “up” and “down” days YTD.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
  2. AND THEN? – The S&P 500 has gained +7.2% YTD (total return) through 6/27/14, likely to be the 17th time since 1990 (i.e., 17 of 25 years) that the index has produced a positive total return during the January-June time frame.  In the previous 16 times that the S&P 500 was positive during the first half of the year, the index followed up with a positive total return in the second half of the year 13 times, i.e., 81% of the time (source: BTN Research).
  3. AVOIDING A CORRECTION – As of today, the S&P 500 has gone exactly 1,000 calendar days (i.e., from 10/03/11 through and including 6/29/14) without a 10% or greater drop in the index, the 5th longest stretch without a double-digit pullback in the last 50 years.  If the S&P 500 is able to avoid a 10% correction through 11/04/14, this run will move into 4th place, replacing a 1,127 day streak within the 1984-87 bull (source: BTN Research).
  4. HOW MUCH MIGHT BE LEFT? – The current bull market for the S&P 500 is 5.3 years in duration as of today.  The longest running bull for the stock index since 1950 lasted 9.5 years.  During the 9.5 year bull market, the S&P 500 gained +111% through 5.3 years, then gained another +145% after 5.3 years (source: BTN Research).
  5. THE HOME STRETCH – The S&P 500 has closed at its calendar year high in the second half of the year (i.e., during the 6 months of July-December) 73% of the time since 1950.  In 7 of the last 11 years, the index’s calendar year high has occurred during the month of December (source: BTN Research).
  6. CHASING LAST YEAR’S WINNERS – An equal investment on 1/01/14 in each of the 10 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 index from calendar year 2013 would have produced a +15.8% gain through the close of trading on Friday 6/27/14 (source: BTN Research).
  7. TRUSTING LAST YEAR’S LOSERS – An equal investment on 1/01/14 in each of the 10 worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 index from calendar year 2013 would have produced a +1.7% gain through the close of trading on Friday 6/27/14 (source: BTN Research).
  8. HERE’S THE MATH – The government reported last week that the US economy fell by 2.9% during the 1st quarter 2014, i.e., quarter-over-quarter change expressed as an annualized result.  The economy actually fell by just 0.74% during the quarter (i.e., from $15.9423 trillion on 12/31/13 to $15.8242 trillion on 3/31/14).  The reported 2.9% tumble assumes the 0.74% actual drop repeats itself over the next 3 quarters, i.e., 1.00-0.0074 = 0.9926 raised to the 4th power = 0.97073, equal to a drop of 2.927%, rounded to a fall of 2.9% (source: BTN Research).
  9. USUALLY – The US has tracked GDP growth by quarter over the last 67 years (268 quarters).  The nation’s quarterly growth has been “as bad or worse” than a drop of 2.9% only 18 times in the 268 quarters (7% of the time), including last week’s report from the 1st quarter 2014.  Assuming that the US is not currently in a recession, then the latest report is only the 2nd incidence in 67 years when the quarterly change was “as bad or worse” than a loss of 2.9% and the economy was not in an official recession (source: Commerce Department).
  10. OLD WHEELS – The average vehicle on the road today in the USA was purchased during the 1st quarter 2003 (source: IH Automotive).
  11. SCARY THOUGHT – 45% of US households headed by individuals of “working age” have not set aside any funds for their future retirement (source: National Institute on Retirement Security).
  12. RAINY DAY FUNDS – Less than half of Americans surveyed (49%) have set aside funds that would cover expenses for 3 months that would be needed in the event of a financial emergency (source: FINRA).
  13. THIS IS A NO BRAINER – The elimination of Saturday delivery of mail would save the US Postal System an estimated $2 billion a year (source: Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe).
  14. TAXES – The top marginal tax rate for an individual taxpayer in Sweden is 56.74%, a rate that begins on income levels of at least $66,419 (US dollar equivalent).  The top marginal tax rate for an individual taxpayer in the USA is 39.6%, a rate that begins on income levels of at least $406,750 (source: Tax Policy Center, NationMaster).
  15. THE WORLD’S BIGGEST SPORT – The winning soccer team of the 2014 World Cup will earn $35 million.  Every team playing in Brazil will earn $8 million plus an additional $1.5 million for expenses (source: FIFA).

 

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